中国ICT产品出口效率及潜力的动态演进研究———以“一带一路”沿线国家为例

Research on the dynamic evolution of China’s ICT products export efficiency and potential——Taking the countries along the Belt and Road as an example

基于“一带一路”沿线48个样本国家的面板数据,运用随机前沿引力模型实证测度中国ICT产品出口效率,并采用Markov链方法揭示中国ICT产品出口潜力的动态演进趋势。结果表明:(1)整体估计显示,双方自由贸易协定的签署、“一带一路”沿线国家互联网普及率、贸易自由度和金融自由度的提高能显著提升中国ICT产品出口效率,国际旅游支出(占总进口的比重)阻碍了ICT产品出口效率的提升;经济发展水平和产品细分类别估计显示,中国ICT产品出口效率的影响因素存在略微差异;(2)中国ICT产品整体出口效率不高但稳步提升,从经济发展水平看,对高收入国家的ICT产品出口效率均值始终高于对中低收入国家的ICT产品出口效率,且两类经济体间的效率差距不断缩小;从细分类别看,通信设备出口效率最高,电子元件出口效率最低;(3)现阶段中国ICT产品出口潜力表现为再造型、开拓型和巨大型,存在长期增长空间且不易发生状态转移。

Based on the panel data of 48 sample countries along the Belt and Road,this paper uses stochastic frontier gravity model to empirically measure the export efficiency of China’s ICT products,and uses Markov chain method to reveal the dynamic evolution trend of China’s ICT product export potential.The results show that:(1)The overall estimate shows that the signing of the bilateral free trade agreement,the improvement of Internet penetration,trade freedom and financial freedom in the countries along the Belt and Road can significantly improve the export efficiency of China’s ICT products,and the international tourism expenditure(accounting for the proportion of total imports)has impeded the improvement of the export efficiency of ICT products;the estimation of economic development level and product segmentation category shows that there are slight differences in the factors affecting the export efficiency of China’s ICT products;(2)The overall export efficiency of China’s ICT products is not high,but has steadily improved.From the perspective of economic development level,the average export efficiency of ICT products for high-income countries has always been higher than that of ICT products for middle-income countries,and the efficiency gap between the two economies has been narrowing;from the perspective of classification,the export efficiency of communication equipment is the highest,and the export efficiency of electronic components is the lowest;(3)At present,the export potential of China’s ICT products is shown as reshaping,pioneering and huge,with long-term growth space and being difficult to shift.