绿色金融、技术进步与经济增长——基于一般均衡模型的理论分析与实证检验

Green Finance,Technological Progress and Economic Growth——A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on a General Equilibrium Model

在推动经济结构转型升级的进程中,“碳达峰”“碳中和”目标的提出使得绿色金融促进经济绿色发展成为国家战略。为进一步考察绿色金融对经济增长的影响,文章建立了一个基于内生增长理论的一般均衡模型分析框架并进行面板数据实证分析,一方面考察绿色金融的合理规模和政策干预的合理边界,另一方面验证绿色金融、技术进步和经济增长之间的关系。模型分析认为,银行更看重厂商抵押品和现有产出水平的贷款评估模式会造成对环保厂商技术进步潜能的忽视和信贷资源的错配,为解决错配问题的政府干预存在政策锚不明确的问题,所以有绿色金融非理性扩张的可能。面板数据实证分析支持技术进步在绿色金融和经济增长的关系中存在部分中介效应,且绿色金融规模与经济增长之间存在倒U型关系,即理论上存在绿色金融规模的最优值,而该最优值约为36.03%。虽然大多数省份和全国水平仍低于最优值,但存在部分省份超出的情况,绿色金融非理性扩张已应给予关注。

In the process of promoting the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure,the“carbon peak”and“carbon neutrality”goals have made green finance a national strategy to promote green economic development.In order to further examine the impact of green finance on high-quality economic development,this paper established a general equilibrium model framework based on the Endogenous Growth Theory and conducted panel data empirical analysis.On the one hand,it examined the reasonable scale of green finance and the reasonable boundary of policy interventions.On the other hand,it verified the relationship between green finance and economic growth.The model analysis believes that traditionally,banks pay more attention to the manufacturer’s collateral and the current output level,which will lead to the neglect of the technological progress potential of environmental protection manufacturers and mismatch of credit resources.And unclearness exists within policy anchors of government interventions to solve the mismatch problem,so the possibility of irrational expansion of green finance cannot be ignored.The panel data empirical test supports an inverted U-shaped relationship between green finance and economic growth,and the existence of mediation effect of technological progress.That is,there is an optimal value of the scale of green finance in theory,which is about 36.03%.Although the level of most provinces in China and the whole country is still lower than that value,some provinces have already exceeded it,and therefore the irrational expansion of green finance should be paid attention to.