基于AHP-TOPSIS法的碳捕集技术方案综合评估

Comprehensive assessment of development path of carbon capture technology based on AHP-TOPSIS method

碳捕集、利用与封存技术(CCUS)是实现碳中和目标的重要手段之一,高成本是目前制约CCUS大面积推广应用的瓶颈,而碳捕集是影响CCUS技术成本的主要环节。近年来,各类碳捕集技术的研发和示范受到广泛关注,但整体成熟度不高,未来发展路径仍不清晰。基于层次分析法和逼近理想解排序法,构建了一套适用于碳捕集技术的综合评估方法,从技术、低碳、经济、安全4方面对目前典型的碳捕集技术进行综合评估。结果表明,现阶段CO_(2)捕集技术的部署主要受低碳特性影响,复合胺吸收法应用潜力居首,而随着我国未来能源、产业结构不断调整,各类碳捕集技术的应用场景及影响其综合推广潜力的因素将发生变化,其中,经济特性将成为未来影响CO_(2)捕集技术市场渗透率的关键,因此,变压吸附法、复合胺吸收法和钙循环法将在未来CO_(2)捕集过程中占据相对重要的地位。通过将定量分析与专家意见相结合,形成的评估结果将为碳捕集技术研发与应用提供科学思路。

Carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)offers an important option to achieve carbon neutrality,however,cost-inef⁃fectiveness hinders the widespread application of CCUS.Among the technical chain of CCUS,carbon capture is the major contributor to the entire cost of CCUS.Recently,the development and demonstration of various carbon capture technologies have received extensive atten⁃tion,but their overall maturity is still low,and future development path is still unclear.Based on the analytic hierarchy process and tech⁃nique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,a set of new methodology was established for the evaluation of carbon capture technology,and several typical carbon capture technologies were comprehensively analyzed from aspects including technology,low carbon,economics and safety.It is found that the deployment of carbon capture technology is mainly affected by their low carbon features at the present stage,and the composite amine absorption method possesses the greatest potential at present.However,with the continuous adjust⁃ment of energy and industrial structure in the future,the application scenarios of various carbon capture technologies and the factors affect⁃ing their deployment potential will change,and the economic features will become the key to determine the market penetration rate.There⁃fore,it is expected that pressure swing adsorption,composite amine absorption,and calcium looping will play a relatively important role in the future.By combining quantitative analysis with expert opinions,the evaluation results of this paper may provide scientific and objective guidance to the research and application of carbon capture technologies.