1971—2020年石河子棉区≥10℃积温变化特征分析

Change Characteristics of ≥10℃ Accumulated Temperature in Shihezi Cotton Area During 1971-2020

利用石河子棉区4个气象站1971—2020年逐日气象资料,采用气候倾向率、累积距平、均方差、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法,分析了石河子棉区≥10℃积温的变化特征。结果表明:石河子棉区≥10℃初日呈显著提前趋势,终日略微推迟,持续日数显著延长,积温明显增多;≥10℃积温及持续日数均在1994年发生了由少到多的突变;≥10℃积温正常年份的概率超过64%,依次向两端递减;≥10℃积温偏低地区主要在莫索湾,偏高地区主要在乌兰乌苏。气候变化背景下,石河子棉区热量条件有较好的改善,棉花延迟型低温冷害有所减轻,石河子棉区品种布局应以早熟棉为主。

Based on the daily average temperatures of four meteorological stations in Shihezi cotton area during 1971-2020.The characteristics of accumulative temperature of ≥10℃ were analyzed by using multiple linear regression,mean square deviation,linear trend coefficient,cumulative anomaly,and Mann Kendall mutation test.The results showed that:the first day of ≥10℃ showed a significant advance trend,the last day of ≥10℃ showed slightly delayed trend,the number of continuous days of ≥10℃ showed significantly prolonged and the accumulated temperature of ≥10℃ showed significantly increased trend.The duration and accumulated temperature of ≥10℃ abrupt changed in 1994.The accumulated temperature of ≥10℃ was the most in normal years,and the probability was more than 64%,decreasing to both ends in turn.Under the background of climate change,the thermal condition of cotton in Shihezi cotton area is improved,and the delayed low temperature chilling injury of cotton will be reduced.The layout of products in Shihezi cotton area should still be dominated by early maturity.