高铁开通对城市三重产业集聚的影响研究--基于中国286个地级及以上城市平衡面板的准自然实验分析

Impact of the Opening of High-speed Railway on Urban Triple Industrial Agglomeration:Quasi Natural Experimental Analysis Based on the Balance Panel of 286 Prefecture Level and the Above Cities in China

研究将高铁开通因素纳入多区域空间经济模型与垂直关联模型,阐明高铁开通对城市三重产业集聚的影响机理。在此基础上,将高铁开通视作准自然实验,选取2004-2019年中国286个地级及以上城市的平衡面板数据,通过构建双重差分模型(DID)实证分析了高铁开通对城市三重产业集聚的影响。研究发现:高铁开通显著促进了城市制造业集聚、生产性服务业集聚以及生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚;高铁开通对城市三重产业集聚的影响强度具有时滞效应,总体上呈现出倒U型特征,对生产性服务业集聚影响的时滞效应更强;高铁开通对东部城市与中心城市的生产性服务业集聚无显著影响,对长三角、珠三角以及京津冀城市群的三重产业集聚均不存在显著影响。针对上述结论,基于规范分析方法提出相应政策建议。

This paper introduces the factor of the“opening of high-speed railway”into multi-regional spatial economic model and vertical correlation model,and expounds the impact mechanism of the opening of high-speed railway on urban triple industrial agglomeration.On this basis,taking the opening of high-speed rail as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper selects the balance panel of 286 prefecture level and the above cities in China from 2004 to 2019,and empirically analyzes the impact of the opening of high-speed rail on urban triple industrial agglomeration by constructing a difference in difference model(DID).Research shows that the opening of high-speed railway has significantly promoted the agglomeration of urban manufacturing industries,producer services industry and the collaborative agglomeration of producer services and manufacturing industries.The impact of the opening of high-speed rail has a“time-lagged”effect on urban triple industrial agglomeration,which generally presents an“inverted U-shaped”feature,and the“time-lagged”effect on the agglomeration of producer services is stronger.The opening of high-speed rail has no significant impact on the producer services agglomeration of eastern cities and central cities,as well as on the triple industrial agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration.In view of the above conclusions,this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions based on normative analysis method.