普及普惠背景下面向2035的幼儿园0-6岁托育和学前教育服务一体化研究

Research on the Integration of Care and Education Service of 0-6 Years Old Children in Kindergartens under the Background of Universal and Economic Pre-primary Education:Forecasting the Scale,Urban-rural Structure and Funding for 2035

在学前教育普及普惠的大背景下,我国幼儿园发展面临着机遇与挑战并存的局面。一方面,2023—2035年适龄儿童规模将持续下降;另一方面,2岁及以下托育存在巨大缺口。基于“七普”数据,采用分年龄净入园率的方法,预测2021—2035年幼儿园发展的主要指标。结果表明,“十四五”“十五五”“十六五”末期,我国幼儿园在园规模将分别减少到3488万、3152万和2908万,在园儿童的城镇化率将分别达到82.14%、84.60%和84.03%,生均财政性教育经费将分别达到14762元、21541元和30133元。为了在保障学前教育普及普惠的大前提下回应国家对于托育的重大需求,建议一方面充分挖掘幼儿园现有学位潜力,2021—2035年,公办园举办托班的比例每年提高5%,允许25%的民办学位转化为托位;另一方面,完善学前教育经费保障机制,综合考虑地域和家庭收入设置财政资助额度,切实减轻家庭在托育和学前教育支出上的负担。

Under the background of universal and economic pre-primary education,the development of kindergartens in China is facing both opportunities and challenges.On the one hand,the scale of school-age children will continue to decline from 2023 to 2035.On the other hand,there is a huge gap in childcare for children aged 2 and below.Based on the data of the 7thnational population survey,this article uses the method of age-specific net enrollment rate to forecast the main indicators of kindergarten development from 2021 to 2035.The results show that at the end of the“14th-five-year”period,the“15th-five-year”period and the“16th-five-year”period,the scale of kindergartens in China will be reduced to 34.88 million,31.52 million and 29.08 million respectively,the urbanization rate of kindergarten children will reach 82.14%,84.60%and 84.03%respectively,and the government spending per child will reach 14762 yuan,21541 yuan and 30133 yuan respectively.In order to respond to China’s major demand for childcare on the premise of ensuring the universal and economic pre-primary education,this article suggests that on the one hand,we should fully tap the existing potential of kindergartens.From 2021 to 2035,the proportion of public kindergartens providing childcare classes should be increased by 5%every year,and 25%of private kindergartens should be converted into childcare centers.On the other hand,we should improve the guarantee mechanism of pre-primary education funds,comprehensively consider the region and family income factors to set the standard of government financial support,and effectively reduce the burden of families on childcare and preschool education expenditure.