徐州市农村老年人时间银行互助养老参与意愿及其影响因素分析

Willingness to participate in time bank mutual assistance program and its influencing factors among rural elderly in Xuzhou city

目的了解江苏省徐州市农村老年人时间银行互助养老参与意愿及其影响因素,为相关部门完善互助养老服务体系提供参考依据。方法于2021年7-9月采用多阶段随机抽样方法在徐州市5个市(县)抽取950名≥60周岁农村老年人进行时间银行互助养老参与意愿问卷调查,并应用多因素非条件logistic回归模型和随机森林模型分析农村老年人时间银行互助养老参与意愿的影响因素。结果徐州市最终纳入分析的925名农村老年人中,有时间银行互助养老参与意愿者599人,意愿参与时间银行互助养老的比例为64.8%;多因素非条件logistic回归分析结果显示,子女看望频率为每月1次、了解时间银行互助养老、存在互助养老保障政策制度偏好、对时间银行互助养老的前景看法为可以尝试和很有前途的徐州市农村老年人参与时间银行互助养老的意愿较高,与伴偶同居、对时间银行互助养老的前景看法为不看好、子女看望频率为每周1次和几乎每天的徐州市农村老年人参与时间银行互助养老的意愿较低;随机森林模型分析结果显示,徐州市农村老年人参与时间银行互助养老影响因素以家庭环境因素中的子女看望频率、经济状况满意度和居住情况在重要性排名中最靠前,保障因素中的是否存在互助养老保障政策制度偏好排名次之,最后为认知层面的是否了解时间银行互助养老以及对其的前景看法。结论江苏省农村老年人参与时间银行互助养老的意愿较高,独居、子女看望频率低和对时间银行互助养老制度及前景认同的老年人更愿意参与互助养老。

Objective To explore the willingness to participate in time bank mutual care program and its influencing factors among rural elderly in Xuzhou city for providing evidence to the improvement of mutual elderly care service system by relevant departments.Methods An onsite self-administered or interviewer-assisted questionnaire survey was conducted among 950 elderly residents(60 years old and over)recruited with multistage random sampling from 38 rural villages in 5 prefectures/counties of Xuzhou municipality,Jiangsu province during July-September 2021.Unconditional multivariate logistic regression model and the random forest model were adopted in analyses on factors influencing the participants′willingness to participate in the time bank mutual care.Results Of the 925 participants with valid responses,599(64.8%)reported the wiliness to participate in the time bank mutual pension.The results of logistic regression analysis showed that the participants with following characteristics were more likely to have a higher willingness of the participation:being usually visited by their children once per month,being aware of the time bank mutual support for the elderly,with the preference for mutual elderly care system,and considering the time bank mutual pension having a good prospect or being worth to have the service;while,living with a cohabitant,being not optimistic about the prospect of the mutual assistant program,and being visited by their children once per week and more were factors against the participants′willingness.The results of random forest model analysis demonstrated that the frequency of children's visit,the satisfaction to economic conditions and the living conditions were the top three important influential factors for the participants′participation willingness,followed by the preference for mutual pension system,the awareness on the time bank mutual assistance program,and the prospect for the development of the mutual assistance elderly care system.Conclusion The willingness to participate in the time bank mutual pension is high among rural elderly in Jiangsu province,especially among those living alone,being visited by their children not frequently,and with positive attitude towards the time bank mutual pension system.