贸易融资、美国货币政策与中国经济波动:基于主导货币视角的研究

Trade Finance,U.S.Monetary Policy and China′s Economy Fluctuations:A Research Based on Dominant Currency Perspective

文章首先基于SVAR和IVAR模型测算获得贸易融资影响美国货币政策冲击效果的经验证据,然后在本地货币定价模型中纳入贸易融资建立两国DSGE模型,研究出口货币融资、进口货币融资和主导货币融资影响美国货币政策国际溢出效应的理论机制。结果表明:考虑贸易融资后,美国货币政策冲击对中国产出、通胀的溢出效应显著放大,说明贸易融资对美国货币政策冲击的跨国传递具有重要影响;在主导货币融资条件下,美国货币政策会通过利率和实际边际成本影响贸易品定价,导致一价定律偏离,从而降低国际贸易总量和资源的跨国配置效率;主导货币贸易融资还会加剧外围国家的通胀和经济波动,削弱外围国家货币政策的有效性和独立性。基于此,文章建议积极推动中国与贸易伙伴签订人民币互换协议,实施本币优先的贸易融资战略,有效缓解美国货币政策冲击的负面溢出效应。

Under the DCP model,the U.S.monetary policy shock has a significant asymmetric spillover effect on peripheral countries.As an important node connecting international trade and financing,trade financing is also dominated by the U.S.dollar,which will also have an important impact on the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic fluctuations.Based on SVAR and IVAR models,we first measured the empirical evidence of how trade finance affects the impact of U.S.monetary policy.Then,we established a two-country DSGE model to include trade finance by referring to producer currency pricing(PCP),local currency pricing(LCP)and dominant currency pricing(DCP)models.This paper studies the theoretical mechanism of how export currency financing(ECF),import currency financing(ICF)and dominant currency financing(DCF)affect the international spillover effect of U.S.monetary policy.The results show that with the increase of trade financing,the spillover effect of U.S.monetary policy impact on China′s output and inflation is significantly amplified.This shows that trade finance has an important impact on the transnational transmission of the impact of U.S.monetary policy.Under the condition of dominant monetary financing,U.S.monetary policy will affect the pricing of traded goods through interest rate and real marginal cost,leading to the deviation of the law of one price,thus reducing the international trade volume and resource allocation efficiency.Dominant currency trade finance will exacerbate inflation and economic volatility in peripheral countries and weaken the effectiveness and independence of monetary policy in peripheral countries.Based on this,the paper suggests that China should actively promote the signing of RMB swap agreements with trading partners,implement the trade financing strategy of RMB priority,effectively mitigate the negative spillover effect of the U.S.monetary policy impact on China′s macroeconomic fluctuations,and improve the level of social welfare.