集成ISM-AHP-SD的机场场面交通冲突风险管控策略效果分析

Effectiveness of the risk management and control strategy of airport surface traffic conflict by integrated with ISM-AHP-SD

为厘清造成机场场面交通冲突事故的关键影响因素并制定切实可行的风险防控策略,首先根据机场场面交通系统布置及运行特点,从“人、机、物、管、环”5个子系统全面识别并提取了30个风险因素;其次,运用解释结构模型(Interpretative Structural Modelling,ISM)对上述风险进行了结构化整合,划分了风险的影响层次,明确了风险在各层次间的传递路径及造成事故的根源因素;进而,在此基础上,利用层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)确定了各风险指标的权重,并借助AnyLogic PLE软件构建了机场场面交通风险的系统动力学(System Dynamics,SD)模型,筛选出根源因素中对系统风险管控效果显著的4个因素;最后,在单因素风险防控仿真分析基础上,采用正交试验设计的方法,验证了多风险因素防控策略组合对机场场面交通冲突的协同效应及策略效果。结果表明:在单因素试验中,机场安保环境的风险管控效果最为显著;在多因素试验中,应急救援管理、员工知识与工作技能、机场安保环境及奖罚制度措施的风险水平分别控制在0.12、0.31、0.25及0.22时协同管控策略效果最佳。研究结论为大型民航机场科学制定机场场面交通冲突风险防范策略、保障机场运行安全提供了理论参考与决策依据。

To clarify the key influencing factors of airport surface traffic conflict and formulate practical risk control strategies, this study comprehensively sorted out the relevant influencing factors according to the layout and characteristics of the airport traffic system. A risk analysis index system for airport surface traffic conflict containing 5 first-level indicators and 30 second-level indicators was established from the five subsystems of “human, machine, material, management, and environment”. Secondly, using the Interpretation Structure Model(ISM), the structural division of the above 30 risk factors were obtained, the level of influence of the risk factors was clarified, the five-level interpretation structure causing the risk of airport surface traffic conflict was divided, and the transmission path between the various levels and the root cause of the accident was identified. Furthermore, on this basis, using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP), the weight of each risk factor was determined. For the weighting of risk factors and the hierarchical structure of risk propagation, a System Dynamics(SD) model of airport surface traffic conflict risk was constructed by using AnyLogic PLE software. Through the risk prevention and control simulation analysis of the 6 root risk factors, it was concluded that the 4 factors with significant effects are emergency rescue management, knowledge and work skills, airport security environment, and reward and punishment system measures. Finally, based on single-factor simulation analysis, using the orthogonal experimental design method, the synergy and strategic effects of the multi-risk factor prevention and control strategy combination on the airport surface traffic conflict were verified. Results reveal that in the single factor simulation test, the most significant factor in risk management and control is the airport security environment, followed by reward and punishment system measures, emergency rescue management, and knowledge and work skills. The risk level shows a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, under the control effect of each 4 root risk factors. In the multi-factor simulation test, when the risk levels of emergency rescue management, employee knowledge and work skills, airport security environment, and reward and punishment system measures are controlled at 0.12, 0.31, 0.25, and 0.22, respectively, the risk level of airport surface traffic conflict is the lowest, and the combination strategy effect is the best. The conclusion obtained from this study provides a theoretical reference and decision-making basis for the large-scale civil aviation airport to scientifically formulate the prevention and control strategy of airport traffic conflict risk.