基于N-K模型和SNA的新能源汽车燃爆风险因素耦合分析

Coupling analysis of new energy vehicle combustion-explosion risk factors based on N-K model and SNA

新能源汽车燃爆事故涉及人、车、充电设备(桩)和环境等多风险因素。从系统层面确定最大风险耦合形式及关键风险因素对提升我国新能源汽车安全水平具有重要意义。通过收集整理我国2016-2020年发生的191起新能源汽车燃爆事故案例,运用N-K模型计算风险耦合值;利用社会网络分析(Social Network Analysis, SNA)将风险因素作用关系可视化,分析风险因素网络中各节点中心度及可达性;结合N-K模型和SNA对风险节点的出度进行修正,确定新能源汽车燃爆事故中的关键风险因素,并据此提出安全防控策略。结果表明:多风险因素耦合导致事故发生的概率较大;控制车-环两因素风险耦合可有效避免燃爆事故发生;高温、低温、浸水、路面异物碰撞和电池管理系统故障是需要重点防范的关键风险因素。

To conduct a comprehensive risk analysis of new energy vehicle explosion accidents, determining the maximum risk coupling form and key risk factors of new energy vehicle explosion accidents more reasonably, this paper constructed the N-K model and applied social network analysis. Firstly, by collecting and sorting out 191 cases of new energy vehicle explosion accidents that occurred in China from 2016 to 2020, risk factors are identified from the four aspects of humans, vehicles, charging equipment, and the environment, and a preliminary establishment of a risk index system is proposed. Secondly, the N-K model is used to calculate the risk coupling value and get the risk coupling value order;the Social Network Analysis(SNA) model is used to visualize the relationship between risk factors and analyze the centrality and accessibility of each risk factors node in the directed network. Finally, the risk coupling value is used as the correction coefficient to modify the exit degree of the risk node closeness center degree to ensure the objectivity of the results, and the revised results are used as the basis for evaluating the key risk factors. According to the model results, the safety prevention and control strategy is proposed. The results show that the coupling of multiple risk factors leads to a greater probability of accidents, and controlling the occurrence of key risk factors can effectively cut off the risk chain of explosion accidents;controlling the risk coupling of the vehicle and environmental risk factors can effectively avoid the occurrence of explosion accidents;high temperature, low temperature, water flooding, collisions with foreign objects on the road, and battery management system failures are key risk factors that need to be guarded against. The research results have important guiding significance for the prevention of explosion accidents of new energy vehicles and product safety issues.