2013—2020年广州市番禺区主要慢性病早死概率变化趋势分析

Analysis on change trend of premature death probability of major chronic diseases in Panyu District of Guangzhou City from 2013-2020

目的 分析2013—2020年广州市番禺区居民主要慢性病死亡情况及早死概率,评估早死概率下降目标的完成情况。方法 收集死亡日期为2013—2020年的番禺区户籍人口死亡资料,分析4类主要慢性病的死亡情况、早死概率及其年均变化速度,评估4类主要慢性病早死概率2025年和2030年控制目标的完成情况。结果 2013—2020年番禺区4类主要慢性病的早死概率由14.01%降至11.26%,年均下降速度为3.07%,男性主要慢性病早死概率远高于女性,恶性肿瘤和心脑血管疾病早死概率远高于慢性呼吸系统和糖尿病。以2015年为基准,以目前早死概率的年均下降速度,恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病及4类主要慢性病合计均能实现2025年和2030年控制目标,但不同性别及全人群糖尿病和女性恶性肿瘤早死概率都不能达到控制目标。结论 男性是番禺区慢性病防治的重点人群,恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病和糖尿病是慢性病防控的重点疾病。应做好相关危险因素的监测和干预,积极开展疾病早诊早治,降低慢性病早死概率,以实现“2025年慢性病中长期规划”和“健康中国2030”目标。

Objective To analyze the death of major chronic diseases and the probability of premature death of residents in Panyu District of Guangzhou City from 2013 to 2020,evaluate the completion of the goal of reducing the probability of early death.Methods The death data of registered residents who died from 2013 to 2020 in Panyu District were collected,to analyze the death situation,premature death probability and average annual change rate of four major chronic diseases,and estimate the achievement of control targets in 2025 and 2030 for the probability of premature death from four major chronic diseases. Results From 2013 to 2020,the premature death probability caused by four major chronic diseases in Panyu District decreased from 14.01% to 11.26%,the average annual decline rate was 3.07%,the premature death probability of major chronic diseases in males was much higher than that in females,and the premature death probability in malignant tumors and cardiovascular diseases was much higher than that in chronic respiratory and diabetes mellitus. Compared with 2015 baseline,at the current average annual rate of decline in the premature death probability,the malignant tumors,cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,chronic respiratory diseases and total of four main chronic diseases in Panyu District can achieve control targets in 2025 and 2030. However,the risk of premature death in all gender and whole population diabetes and female malignant tumors are not up to the target. Conclusions Males are the key groups in the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases in Panyu District,while malignant tumors,cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and diabetes are the key diseases of chronic disease prevention and control. It is necessary to improve the monitoring and intervention of related risk factors,actively carry out early diagnosis and early treatment,and reduce the premature death probability,so as to strive to successfully achieve the objectives of "China’s medium and long term plan for the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases(2025) " and the outline of the "healthy China 2030" plan.