中国的县域村镇人口迁移研究进展与展望

Research progress and prospect of population migration in counties, towns and villages in China

新时期城乡人口双向流动格局显著、研究尺度下沉,了解县域村镇人口迁移规律模式与影响机制对县域村镇规划编制及发展战略制定具有重要意义。本文利用CiteSpace分别识别1985年、2009年以来中国的县域村镇尺度人口迁移研究热点,分析显示新旧热点联系紧密,理论与实证研究稳步发展,三十多年间学者关注的主要议题大体一致,集中在迁移主体特征、迁移过程的规律模式、迁移的影响因素与机制及迁移带来的影响与效应四个方面,由此系统性梳理归纳出国内关于县域村镇人口迁移研究的主要结论与进展。并根据社会经济发展需求与学界研究趋势提出可重点关注的4类议题:(1)创新理论方法与基础数据研究。探索符合中国国情的理论、规范数据采集与统计口径、寻求学科交叉融合应用将极大扩展县域村镇人口迁移研究的想象空间。(2)尺度纵横向比较研究。探索不同尺度迁移规律,借鉴其他地区同尺度人口规划经验,以提出适应不同层级发展需求的策略。(3)迁移的时空演变与影响机制研究。关注下沉尺度的县域内部人口迁移模式,回溯生命周期视角下的家庭迁移模式,关注制度变量与迁移时间等新影响因素。(4)迁移的微观影响与效应研究。运用新理论与方法在个体与家庭微观层面开展影响研究能反映真实的自下至上的诉求。

Given the background of subsiding research scale and two-way flow pattern between urban and rural areas, there is a theoretical and practical significance to comprehend the pattern and influence mechanism of population migration in counties, towns and villages in China.CiteSpace knowledge map is used to identify the research hotspots of China’s county-town-villages population migration since 1985 and 2009 in this paper. The analysis shows the theoretical and empirical research has developed steadily, cause the new and old hotspots are closely linked,research topics in more than 30 years had been focusing on the migration subject characteristics,migration process patterns, migration impact mechanism and its impact. The paper systematically summarizes conclusion and progress of the research on population migration in counties,towns and villages in China, putting forward four key issues:(1)Research on the innovative theoretical methods and collection of basic data. Exploring the theory in line with China’s national conditions, standardizing the data collection and statistical caliber, and seeking the interdisciplinary integration application will widen the imagination space of the research on population migration;(2)Vertical and horizontal comparative research. To explore the migration pattern of different scales, comparative studies are neccessary;(3)Research on the spatiotemporal evolution and impact mechanism of migration. It is urgent to carry in-depth study on the migration pattern within counties, tracing family migration model based on life cycle theory, exploring new factors like institutional variables and migration time;(4)Research on the micro impact effect of migration. Using new theories and methods to carry out impact research on individual and family level can reflect the real bottom-up appeal.