哈长城市群水资源承载力时空格局及耦合协调度

The temporal-spatial pattern and coupling coordination degree of water resources carrying capacity in the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration

为客观认识哈长城市群建设与发展中水资源承载力现状,保障水资源开发利用的可持续发展,本研究构建哈长城市群水资源承载力评价体系,采用改进熵权TOPSIS模型、空间自相关分析、耦合协调度评价模型综合评价2012—2019年哈长城市群水资源承载力时空变化格局及各子系统间的耦合协调度。结果表明:(1)哈长城市群水资源承载力呈先降后升趋势变化,整体处于水资源合理状态,水资源禀赋是影响水资源承载力提升的主要因素;(2)水资源承载力空间分布上黑龙江省城市水资源承载力水平优于吉林省城市;(3)城市群各子系统承载力评分中社会经济子系统评分(0.22)最高,其次是水资源子系统(0.18),生态环境子系统(0.07)最低,水资源子系统评分城市间差异较大,主要受人均水资源量、产水模数、年降水量影响;(4)城市群水资源承载力与耦合协调度之间存在较强的正相关关系,哈长城市群平均耦合协调度为0.37,整体水平较低,处于轻度失调状态。

To objectively understand the current situation of water resources carrying capacity in the construction and development of Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration and ensure the sustainable de‐velopment of water resources development and utilization,this study constructs the evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity of Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration and adopts the im‐proved entropy weight TOPSIS model,spatial autocorrelation analysis and coupling coordination de‐gree evaluation model to comprehensively evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of water resources carrying capacity of Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration and the coupling coordination degree among subsystems from 2012 to 2019.The results show that:(1)The water resources carrying capacity of Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration shows a trend of decreasing first and then increasing,and the overall is in reasonable state of water resources,and water resources endowment is the main factor affecting the improvement of water resources carrying capacity.(2)The spatial distribution of water resources carrying capacity of cities in Heilongjiang Province is better than cities in Jilin Province.(3)Among the subsystems in the urban agglomeration,the socio-economic subsystem score(0.22)is the highest,followed by the water resources subsystem(0.18)and the ecological environment subsystem(0.07)is the lowest.The score of the water resources subsystem varies greatly among cities and is mainly influenced by per capita water resources,water production modulus,and annual precipitation.(4)There is a strong positive correlation between the water resources carrying capacity of urban agglom‐erations and the coupling coordination degree,and the average coupling coordination degree of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration is 0.37,with a low overall level and in a state of slight imbalance.