基于重心-GTWR模型的城镇碳排放人文驱动因素解析——以江西省为例

Analysis of Human Driving Factors of Urban Carbon Emissions based on the Center of Gravity-GTWR Model—A Case Study of Jiangxi Province

准确把握江西省城镇碳排放的空间交互特征及其人文驱动因素,可为江西省有关部门制定碳减排政策提供科学参考。采用夜间灯光数据估算1997—2017年江西省城镇碳排放量,运用重心转移模型和重心-GTWR模型解析江西省城镇碳排放的空间交互作用和人文驱动因素,最后对环境Kuznets曲线假说进行验证。结果表明:江西省1997—2017年累积城镇碳排放量为2596×106 t;城镇碳排放空间分布不均衡,整体呈现集聚演变态势,其空间交互作用在西南和东北方向较强,在东南和西北方向较弱;人口规模、人均GDP、城市化水平、产业结构、对外开放水平和外商直接投资对城镇碳排放具有显著正向驱动效应,且驱动效应具有时空异质性;环境Kuznets曲线假说在部分时期部分城市有条件成立。建议因时因城细化碳排放减排政策。

An accurate grasp of the spatial interaction characteristics of urban carbon emissions and their human drivers in Jiangxi province can provide scientific reference for the relevant departments in Jiangxi province to formulate carbon emission reduction policies.The nighttime lighting data were used to estimate the urban carbon emissions in Jiangxi province from 1997 to 2017,and the spatial interaction and human drivers of urban carbon emissions in Jiangxi province were analyzed using the center of gravity shift model and the center of gravity-GTWR model,and finally the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis was verified.The results show that,the cumulative urban carbon emissions in Jiangxi province from 1997 to 2017 were 2.596×106 t.The spatial distribution of urban carbon emissions was uneven,and the overall trend was agglomeration evolution.The spatial interaction was stronger in the southwest and northeast directions,and weaker in the southeast and northwest directions.Population size,per capita GDP,urbanization level,industrial structure,openness level and foreign direct investment have significant positive driving effects on urban carbon emissions,and the driving effects have spatial and temporal heterogeneity.The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is conditionally valid in some cities in some periods.It is recommended to refine carbon emission reduction policies according to time and city.