2012-2021年江西省南昌市新建区4类慢性病早死负担分析

Analysis on burden of premature mortality of four chronic diseases in Xinjian district,Nanchang,Jiangxi,2012-2021

目的分析2012—2021年江西省南昌市新建区4类慢性病(心脑血管疾病、癌症、糖尿病、慢性呼吸系统疾病)的早死负担及变化趋势,并评估“健康中国2030”重大慢性病早死概率目标的实现情况。方法收集整理2012—2021年南昌市新建区死因监测数据,采用R 4.2.0和Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.1.0软件计算粗死亡率、早死所致生命损失年率(YLL率)、早死概率、平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)等指标,率的比较采用χ2检验,各指标的时间变化趋势采用AAPC进行描述。结果2012—2021年南昌市新建区4类慢性病合计粗死亡率和YLL率分别为544.87/10万、109.91‰,标化死亡率、标化YLL率、早死概率均呈下降趋势(P<0.05)。男性粗死亡率、YLL率和早死概率均高于女性。心脑血管疾病的标化死亡率、标化YLL率和早死概率均呈下降趋势(P<0.05);癌症YLL率和早死概率分别为49.77‰和8.90%,为4类慢性病中最高;糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病早死概率下降最明显。结论江西省南昌市新建区4类慢性病早死负担呈下降趋势,按照此趋势可以实现“健康中国2030”目标。心脑血管疾病、癌症和男性是应重点关注的疾病和人群。

Objective To analyze the burden of premature mortality and change trends of four chronic diseases(cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,cancer,diabetes,and chronic respiratory diseases)in Xinjian district of Nanchang,Jiangxi province,from 2012 to 2021,and assess the achievement of the goal of reducing premature death probability of major chronic diseases in“Healthy China 2030”.Methods The death data in Xinjian from 2012-2021were collected.Software R 4.2.0 and Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.1.0 were used to calculate the crude death rate,years of life lost rate(YLL rate),probability of premature mortality,and average annual percentage change(AAPC)andχ2 test was used for rate comparison.The temporal trend of each index was described using AAPC.Results The overall crude mortality rate and YLL rate of the four chronic diseases in Xinjian from 2012 to 2021 were 544.87/100000 and 109.91‰,respectively.There were decreasing trends in the overall standardized mortality rate,standardized YLL rate,and probability of premature mortality(P<0.05).The crude mortality rate,YLL rate and probability of premature mortality were higher in men than in women.The standardized mortality rate,standardized YLL rate and premature mortality probability of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases all showed downward trends(P<0.05).The YLL rate and probability of premature mortality of cancer were 49.77‰and 8.90%,respectively,the highest among the four chronic diseases.The probabilities of premature mortality of diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases had the most significant reductions.Conclusion The burden of premature mortality of four chronic diseases in Xinjian was in decline,indicating that the goal of“Health China 2030”can be achieved.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,cancers,especially in men.