新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控措施对猩红热防控效果的定量评估

Quantitative evaluation on control effect of scarlet fever in 2020 after implementation of COVID-19 control measures

目的利用自回归滑动平均混合模型(ARIMA)季节乘积模型,定量评估新型冠状病毒肺炎(以下简称新冠肺炎)防控措施对猩红热防控效果的影响。方法利用2011-2019年山东省济南市历城区猩红热月发病率,建立ARIMA模型;用该模型拟合2011-2019年济南市历城区猩红热月发病率验证模型。通过比较2020年猩红热月发病实际值与ARIMA模型拟合值,评估2020年新冠肺炎防控措施的落实对猩红热的防控效果。结果2014-2019年济南市历城区猩红热实际发病呈逐年上升趋势。2011-2019年猩红热各月发病率实际值与ARIMA模型拟合值接近,除个别值外,其他均在的95%CI内,ARIMA模型对2011-2019年趋势的拟合与实际情况基本吻合。2020年猩红热实际发病率较拟合发病率降低了71.24/10万,降幅为90.24%;实际发病人数较拟合值减少了777人。经Wilcoxon秩和检验,2020年猩红热月实际发病率与ARIMA模型拟合发病率的差异有统计学意义(Z=-3.059,P<0.01)。结论新冠肺炎防控措施的落实对猩红热防控效果明显,有助于明显降低猩红热发病率。

Objective To evaluate the control effect of scarlet fever in 2020 after implementation of COVID-19 control measures in Licheng district,Jinan city by multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model.Methods ARIMA model was established with monthly incidence of scarlet fever and testified by fitting the monthly incidence of scarlet fever in Licheng district from 2011 to 2019.The prevention and control effect on scarlet fever after implementation of COVID-19 control measures was evaluated by comparing the predicted incidence data with the actual incidence data of scarlet fever in Licheng district in 2020.Results The actual incidence of scarlet fever in Licheng district from 2014 to 2019 showed an upward trend.The actual monthly incidence of scarlet fever from 2011 to 2019 was close to the fitted value and within 95%CI of the fitted value of the ARIMA model except individual values,the fitted trend by the ARIMA model was basically consistent with the actual situation.In 2020,the actual incidence of scarlet fever was decreased by 71.24/10~5,compared with the fitted value,with a decrease of 90.24%,and the actual number of the patients was decreased by 777.According to the Wilcoxon rank sum test,there was a statistically significant difference between the actual monthly incidence of scarlet fever in 2020 and the fitted incidence of ARIMA model(Z=-3.059,P<0.01).Conclusion The implementation of preventive and control measures for COVID-19 is effective in the prevention and control of scarlet fever,and is able to significantly reduce the incidence of scarlet fever.