中国CCUS-EOR项目经济效果及其提升手段研究

Research on economic effect of China’s CCUS-EOR projects and its improvement methods

二氧化碳捕集、驱油利用与封存(CCUS-EOR)作为最具创效潜力的CCUS技术,是实现双碳的重要手段之一,然而目前经济性正制约其发展应用。为了探究CCUS-EOR项目实际经济效果及其提升手段,对中国4个典型项目进行了经济评价,采用关键参数对比与敏感性分析方法研究了影响项目经济性的关键经济参数,通过基准平衡分析技术测算了关键经济参数的基准平衡边界。结果显示:在CO_(2)价格为300元/t时,大部分项目需要在国际油价为70美元/bbl左右内部收益率才能达标,项目经济效果主要受油价、增油量、CO_(2)价格、换油率、吨油建设投资影响,为保证项目收益率达标,应至少保证CO_(2)价格低于300元/t、换油率小于4.5 tCO_(2)/t油、吨油建设投资小于700元/t,CO_(2)价格、换油率和吨油建设投资越低,项目内部收益率越高。最后从碳交易收益、财政支持与税收优惠、多储层同步埋存3个方面探讨了从外部提高项目经济效果的途径,以期为CCUS-EOR技术发展规划与项目实施提供参考。

As the most effective and potential carbon capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS)technology,Carbon dioxide capture,EOR-utilization and storage(CCUS-EOR)is one of the important means to realize carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.However,its development and application are restricted by economical efficiency at present.To explore the actual economic effect of CCUS-EOR projects and its improvement methods,this paper conducted the economic evaluation of four typical projects in China and probed into the key economic factors influencing its economical efficiency via the comparative analysis of key parameters and sensitivity analysis.Then,the benchmark balance boundary of key economic parameters was calculated by the benchmark balance analysis technology.The results show that the international oil price of about 70 US dollars/barrel is needed for the internal rate of return of most projects to reach the standard when the CO_(2) price is 300 yuan/ton.The economic effect of CCUS-EOR projects is mainly influenced by the oil price,oil production increment,CO_(2) price,oil draining ratio,and construction investment.In a bid to ensure that the projects’rate of return can reach the standard,the CO_(2) price should be less than 300 yuan/ton,the oil draining ratio smaller than 4.5 tCO_(2)/toil,and the construction investment less than 700 yuan/ton.The lower these are,the projects’internal rate of return is higher.The paper also discussed three ways of carbon trading benefits,financial support and tax incentives,and simultaneous storage of multiple reservoirs to improve the economic effect of the projects from the outside in hope of providing reference for CCUS-EOR technology development planning and project implementation.