中国与“一带一路”国家资本品、中间品及消费品贸易效率研究

Research on Trade Efficiency of Capital Goods,Intermediate Goods and Consumption Goods Between China and“the Belt and Road”Countries

本文分别从贸易结构以及地域差异的视角对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易潜力和贸易效率进行分析,结果显示:影响贸易规模的传统因素以及影响贸易效率的人为因素对中国在资本品、中间品和消费品三类产品上的影响基本符合理论预期;从贸易结构来看,中国进出口产品贸易效率整体偏低,出口方面主要是由中间品和消费品的出口贸易效率低造成的,进口方面则主要是由于资本品和消费品的出口贸易效率低造成的;从地域差异来看,中国与北线、中线和南线三线国家在不同品类产品进出口贸易效率上表现出明显差异。基于实证结果,本文进一步从贸易结构和地域差异层面对新发展格局下中国与沿线国家的贸易效率提升及未来发展前景进行了深入探讨。

This paper estimates trade efficiency and trade potential of export and import between China and countries along“the Belt and Road”respectively from the aspects of trade structure and regional differences.The results show that the impacts of traditional factors affecting trade scale and artificial factors affecting trade efficiency on China's three product categories basically conform to the theoretical expectation.From the perspective of trade structure,the trade efficiency is generally low.The low efficiency of export trade is mainly caused by intermediate goods and consumption goods,while the low efficiency of import trade is mainly caused by capital goods and consumption goods.From the perspective of regional difference,three-line countries show significant differences in import and export trade efficiency of different product categories.Based on the empirical results,we deeply analyze the improvement of trade efficiency and future development prospects between China and countries along“the Belt and Road”under the new development pattern from the aspects of trade structure and regional differences.