基于贝叶斯Cox风险比例回归的兰州市HIV感染者/AIDS患者死亡影响因素分析

Influencing Factors of HIV/AIDS Death Based on Bayesian Cox Proportional Hazard Regression Model

[目的]了解兰州市HIV/AIDS报告病例相关特征的构成情况,分析艾滋病相关死亡的影响因素。[方法]通过收集兰州市2011-2019年HIV/AIDS报告病例信息,采用生存分析方法,构建贝叶斯Cox风险比例回归模型分析影响死亡的相关因素。[结果]本研究共选取2312例HIV/AIDS患者,其中艾滋病相关死亡45例。多因素回归结果显示,患者年龄越大,死亡风险越高;确诊时为AIDS患者的死亡风险是HIV感染者的13.91倍;与未接受CD4检测的患者相比,接受CD4检测的患者的死亡风险降低;进行抗病毒治疗者的死亡风险是未进行抗病毒治疗者的0.22倍。[结论]确诊时年龄、病程阶段、是否接受抗病毒治疗是兰州市HIV/AIDS患者艾滋病相关死亡的影响因素,因此要加强艾滋病相关人群健康教育,提倡早发现、早诊断、早治疗,扩大艾滋病检测与治疗的覆盖面,延长艾滋病患者的生存时间。

[Objective]To understand the composition of related characteristics of HIV/AIDS cases in Lanzhou and an⁃alyze the influencing factors of AIDS-related deaths.[Methods]The information of HIV/AIDS cases reported in Lanzhou from 2011 to 2019 was collected,the method of survival was used analysis and Bayesian Cox Proportional Hazard Regression Model was constructed to analyze the related factors of death.[Results]A total of 2312 HIV/AIDS patients were se⁃lected in this study,including 45 AIDS-related deaths.The results of multivariate regression showed that the older the patients were,the higher the risk of death was;the risk of death of AIDS patients at the time of diagnosis was 13.91 times higher than that of HIV-infected patients;Patients who received CD4 testing had a lower risk of death than those who did not;The risk of death was 0.22 times higher among those who received antiretroviral therapy than those who did not receive antiretroviral therapy.[Conclusions]Age at diagnosis,course of disease,antiviral therapy were the influencing factors of AIDS-related death in HIV/AIDS patients in Lanzhou.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen health education for AIDS related groups,advocate early detection,early diagnosis,and early treatment,expand the coverage of AIDS testing and treatment,prolong the survival time of AIDS patients.