中长期径流预报研究进展与展望

Research progress and prospect of mid-long term runoff prediction

概述了中长期径流变化的主要影响因素,从发展历程和研究方法两个角度总结了中长期径流预报方法。从研究技术、径流成因、数据驱动模型、预报不确定性4个方面综述了中长期径流预报的研究进展,分析了在径流关键驱动因子及其驱动机制、数据驱动方法的物理可解释性、预报结果的不确定性认识等方面研究的不足,指出未来应注重对中长期径流物理成因、预报方法适用性和可靠性、中长期径流演变相关研究成果的应用等方面的研究。

A summary was made on the the driving factors of mid-long term runoff evolution as well as the classification of mid-long term runoff prediction methods and models from angles of development processes and research methods.The research progress of mid-long term runoff prediction was reviewed from four aspects,including research techniques,physical causes,data-driven models,and prediction uncertainty,and the deficiencies in the research of the key driving factors of runoff and their driving mechanisms,the physical interpretability of data-driven methods,and the uncertainty of prediciton were analyzed.It is pointed out that future research should focus on physical causes of mid-long term runoff evolution,the applicability and reliability of prediction methods,and application of relevant research results of mid-long term runoff evolution.