基于贝叶斯网络的电镀企业火灾事故情景推演

Scenario deduction of fire accidents in electroplating enterprises based on Bayesian network

为有效解决电镀企业火灾事故情景演化路径复杂、火灾扑救困难等问题,提高电镀火灾应急处置能力,采用情景分析与贝叶斯网络(BN)相结合的方法,对电镀企业火灾演化路径进行推演。首先分析电镀火灾特点,确定情景状态、应急驱动、承灾要素和处置目标4种情景要素;然后基于动态BN确定情景间的关系,运用D-S证据理论处理优化,构建电镀企业火灾情景推演模型;最后将其应用于某电镀火灾实例,通过Netica软件得到各节点的状态概率,找出事故的发展趋势和情景演化路径。结果表明:该事故所有可能的演化路径中,预热槽体起火(情景S_(1))是事故发生概率最大的情景,概率达81.2%;需在此处采取有效措施,使火灾消失概率达到62.3%。

In order to effectively solve the problems of complex scenario evolution path and difficult firefighting in electroplating enterprises fire accident,and improve the emergency response ability of electroplating fire,the method of combining scenario analysis and BN was used to deduce the evolution path of electroplating enterprises fire.Firstly,the characteristics of electroplating fire were analyzed,and four scenario elements,including scenario status,emergency drive,disaster bearing elements and disposal objectives,were determined.Then,the relationship between scenarios was determined based on BN.The D-S evidence theory was used to process and optimize.A fire scenario deduction model was built for electroplating enterprises.Finally,taking an electroplating fire as an example,the status probability of each node was obtained through Netica software to find out the development trend and scenario evolution path of the accident.The results show that among all possible evolution paths of the accident,preheat the tank for fire(Scenario S_(1))is the scenario with the highest probability of accident occurrence,with a probability of 81.2%.Effective measures should be taken here to make the probability of fire disappearance reach 62.3%.