基于投入产出分析的再生产循环动力学建模与解析

Modeling and analyzing on the dynamics of reproduction cycle based on input-output method

中国经济已迈入以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展阶段。传统的投入产出分析虽然能够较好地反映生产网络的中间结构,但较难充分揭示价值流循环。基于马克思再生产理论与循环经济以及能源经济在体系构建思想上的一致性,借鉴生物物理建模方法构建宏观经济再生产循环动力学模型,并对其进行模拟解析。结果发现,在经济发展初期,可以通过大量的资源消耗取得较快发展速度;随着资源约束增强,经济发展速度逐渐放缓。结论较好地揭示了经济发展路径,为马克思经济增长理论提供了一个模型示例,并为双循环战略提供了一个注解和指引。

China s economy has entered a new development stage of“dual circulation”,the domestic cycle is the main body and the domestic and international cycles promote each other.Although traditional input-output analysis can well reflect the intermediate output structure of a production network,it is difficult to fully reveal the value stream cycle.Based on the consistency of Marxism reproduction system,circular economy and energy economy in theoretical construction,we use the biophysical modeling method to construct the macro-economic reproduction cycle model,and carry out the simulation analysis.The results show that in the early stage of economic development,rapid development can be achieved through a large amount of resource consumption.As resource constraints increase,economic growth slows down.The conclusions reveal the economic development path,provide a sample model for the Marxism economic growth theory,and a guidance for the“dual circulation”strategy.