制造业转入如何影响中西部地区就业——来自地级及以上城市的经验证据

How Manufacturing Transfer Affects the Employment in the Central and Western Regions:Empirical Evidence from Prefecture-level and Above Cities

文章基于中国制造业空间转移的特征事实,利用2004—2018年地级及以上城市面板数据,从理论与实证两方面系统考察制造业转入中西部地区影响当地就业的机理与效应。研究发现:(1)制造业转入总体上显著促进了承接地就业增长,在一系列稳健性检验后结论依然成立。(2)机制检验表明,制造业转入一方面通过产业集聚及关联效应推动承接地产业发展而增加有效就业需求,另一方面通过促进承接地加大环境污染治理投资,抑制污染对劳动力的挤出并增加相关劳动力的需求。(3)异质性分析表明,制造业转入产生的就业促进效应在距离东部沿海一线城市800 km范围内以及人口规模为100万以上的城市样本中更加显著。(4)从产业关联效应考虑,制造业转入对生产性服务业的就业增长作用显著,对农林牧渔业及部分非生产性服务业就业没有显著影响。研究结论对进一步支持产业有序转移与有效承接、促进制造业转移对劳动力空间配置的引导作用和实现“稳就业”目标提供了重要启示。

Based on the characteristic facts of the spatial transfer of Chinese manufacturing industry,this paper uses the panel data of prefecture-level and above cities from 2004 to 2018 to systematically investigate the mechanism and effect of manufacturing industry transfer on the local employment in central and western regions.The results find that:1)The transfer of manufacturing industry has significantly promoted the local employment on the whole,and the conclusion holds robustness tests.2)The manufacturing industry transfer increases the effective employment by promoting the local industries through industrial agglomeration and correlation effect.The manufacturing industry transfer promotes the investment in environmental pollution control and inhibits the flow-out of labor force and increases the demand for related labor force.3)The heterogeneity analysis shows that the employment promotion effect generated by the manufacturing industry transfer is more significant in the sample of cities with a distance of 800 km from first-tier cities on the eastern coast and a population size of more than 1 million.4)From the perspective of industrial linkage effects,the manufacturing industry transfer has a significant effect on employment growth of productive service industries,but has no significant impact on the employment of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery and some non-productive service industries.The research conclusion provides important enlightenment for further supporting the orderly transfer and effective undertaking of industries,promoting the guiding role of manufacturing industry transfer on space allocation of labor force,and achieving the goal of"stable employment".