我国旅游业高质量发展水平测度、空间分异及障碍因子诊断

Level Measurement,Spatial Variation and Obstacle Factor Diagnosis of Tourism High-quality Development in China

基于五大发展理念,从“量”与“质”两个方面构建了旅游业高质量发展评价指标体系,基于此,文章测度了2011—2020年全国30个省(区、市)旅游业高质量发展水平,然后借助绝对β收敛、核密度估计、NICH指数与Hurst指数叠加等方法分析了旅游业高质量发展的时空演化格局与发展趋势,最后运用障碍因子诊断模型分析影响旅游业高质量发展的因子。结果表明:(1)研究期内,我国旅游业高质量发展水平总体向好且具有收敛特征,呈现“东高西低、北高南低”的空间分布格局,东部沿海地区为高值聚集区;(2)未来全国旅游业高质量发展的东西差距有缩小趋势,而南北差距有扩大风险,同时西南地区及中部地区增长趋势较强,而青海有弱反持续发展趋势;(3)影响旅游业高质量发展的主要障碍因子具有动态性,主要来自创新驱动、环境效应、产业结构以及发展效率4个方面,以及服务质量与文旅协调度,还需特别关注旅游业发展稳定性与旅游业效应发挥。为此,文章从强化增长极溢出效应、区域旅游一体化建设、破除主要障碍因子等方面提出了促进我国旅游业高质量发展的对策建议。

Based on the five development concepts,this paper constructs an evaluation index system of the high-quality development of tourism industry from two aspects of"quantity"and"quality".Based on this,the high-quality development level of tourism industry in 30 provinces and cities in China from 2011 to 2020 is measured.With the help of absoluteβconvergence,kernel density estimation,NICH index and Hurst index superposition,it analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution pattern and development trend of the high-quality development of tourism.It uses the obstacle factor diagnostic model to analyze the factors affecting the high-quality development of tourism.The following conclusions are drawn:1)During the study period,the development level of high-quality tourism in China is generally good and convergent,showing a spatial distribution pattern of"high in the east and low in the west,high in the north and low in the south",and the eastern coastal area is with high values.2)In the future,the gap of high-quality development of tourism has a trend of narrowing between the east and the west of China,while it has a risk of widening between the south and the north of China.At the same time,the growth trend is strong in southwest and central regions,while Qinghai has a weak anti-sustainable development trend.3)The main obstacles affecting the high-quality development of tourism are dynamic,mainly from the four aspects which are innovation drive,environmental effect,industrial structure and development efficiency,and also include the level of tourism service and the integration between cultural industry and tourism industry.Special attention should be paid to the stability of tourism development and the effect of tourism.Therefore,this paper puts forward some countermeasures to promote the development of tourism with high-quality in China from strengthening spillover effect of growth pole,regional tourism integration construction and breaking down main obstacle factors.