地方政府隐性债务的金融风险传导机制研究

Research on Financial Risk Transmission Mechanism of Local Government Implicit Debt

地方政府隐性债务持续累积可能会引发债务危机,并在很大程度上会向金融体系传导,引发金融风险。本文基于2012—2018年中国268个地级市的数据,分析地方政府隐性债务对金融风险的影响及传导机制。结果表明,地方政府隐性债务积累能够显著地传导并引发金融风险。在经济增速较慢、财政分权程度更高的地区,地方政府隐性债务对金融风险的影响更为显著。机制分析发现,地方政府隐性债务会通过银行业金融机构行为与地方政府行为渠道影响金融风险。本文将土地制度、财政制度与金融制度等纳入统一分析框架,所得结论对于深化地方政府隐性债务管理,并以此推动高质量发展提供了有益的经验证据与决策参考。

The continued accumulation of local government implicit debts may trigger a debt crisis and,to a large extent,transmission to the financial system,triggering financial risks.This paper analyzes the impact and transmission mechanism of lo⁃cal government implicit debts on financial risk based on data from 268 prefecture-level cities in China from 2012-2018.The re⁃sults show that the accumulation of local government implicit debts can significantly transmit and trigger financial risks.The im⁃pact of local government implicit debts on financial risk is more significant in regions with slower economic growth and higher de⁃gree of fiscal decentralization.The intermediary mechanism analysis finds that local government implicit debts affect financial risk through the channel of banking financial institution behavior and local government behavior.This paper incorporates the land system,fiscal system and financial system into a unified analysis framework,and the findings provide useful empirical evi⁃dence and policy-making references for deepening the management of local government implicit debts and promoting highquality development.