安全发展示范城市政策采纳与执行力度——基于281个地级市的比较分析(2010—2021)

Policy Diffusion and Implementation Efforts of Role Model Cities for Safe Development in China:A Comparison Analysis from 281 Prefectures(20102021)

韧性城市作为一项城市减防灾和风险治理的理念已进入我国政策场域,被列入“十四五”规划纲要,成为中央政策倡导。在实践中,“安全发展示范城市”政策成为韧性理念在全国扩散的主要代表。传统政策创新扩散研究多关注政策采纳与否,而忽视政策执行力度。本文基于政策采纳与政策执行力度的双重视角,收集我国281个副省级城市和地级市2010—2021年的数据,从组织结构、行动者特征和环境因素三个方面分析了“安发”城市政策被地方政府采纳和后续执行力度的影响因素。结果表明,地方政府政策采纳和政策执行力度的驱动逻辑有其共性也存在差异,省级推力、同级竞争压力、城市行政级别以及社会经济特征同时影响了地方政府政策采纳和政策执行力度。中央信号是地方政府政策采纳的显著影响因素,但对政策持续推进的影响不显著;地方政府财政压力对政策采纳的影响不明显,但却明显阻碍了政策的持续推进。本研究首次全面描绘了韧性城市理念在我国城市治理中的实施情况,并有助于进一步理解政策扩散和执行过程的复杂性特征。

Resilient cities,as a concept of urban disaster mitigation and risk management,has entered China’s policy arena and have been included in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan and promoted as a central policy advocacy,while the State Council’s“Role Model City for Safe Development(RMCSD)”is an important localization of the concept of resilience.Traditional policy innovation diffusion studies focus on the adoption of policies,but ignore the implementation efforts.Based on the dual perspectives of policy adoption and policy implementation,this paper collects data from 281 sub-provincial and prefecture-level cities in China during 2010-2021,and analyzes the factors influencing the adoption and implementation of the RMCSD policy by local governments from three aspects,including organizational structure,administrator characteristics and environmental factors.The results show that there are commonalities and differences in the driving logic of local government policy adoption and implementation,with provincial push,peer pressure,city administrative level,and socioeconomic characteristics influencing both local government policy adoption and policy implementation.Central signals are a significant influence on local government policy adoption,but not on sustained policy implementation;local government fiscal pressures have insignificant effects on policy adoption,but significantly impede sustained policy implementation.This study provides the first comprehensive picture of the implementation of the resilient city concept in urban governance in China and contributes to further understanding of the complex characteristics of the policy diffusion and implementation process.