基于气象的预测降雨数据在中短期洪水预报中的应用

Application of Forecast Rainfall Data Based on Meteorology in Medium and Short Term Flood Forecast

随着全国电力市场化改革进程的深入推进,水资源作为基础性的自然资源、战略性的经济资源,合理利用水资源显得极为重要,而气象数据是掌握水资源状况的基础要素,在水文上降雨量是洪水预报中最重要的信息。通过对福建水口水电站原有预见期的降雨数据分析,选取2021年5月17日20点的自动计算结果,预测最大洪峰与实测洪峰精确度接近100%,说明通过气象预报数据的接入可以满足预见期3~7d的要求,大大提高了预见期,高精度的水文预报为调度和决策支持提供可靠的数据服务,为企业市场化竞价上网提供有力的判断依据,大大提高了运行效益。

Water resources are basic natural resources and strategic economic resources.With the deepening of national power market-oriented reform process,it is extremely important to make rational use of water resources.Meteorological data is the basic element to master the condition of water resources,and hydrological rainfall is the most important information in flood forecasting.Based on the analysis of the rainfall data of Fujian Shuikou Hydropower Station in the original forecast period,the automatic calculation results at 20 points on May 17,2021 are selected,and the accuracy of the predicted maximum peak and the measured peak is close to 100%.The result shows that the access of meteorological forecast data can meet the requirement of 3-7d forecast period and greatly improve the forecast period.High-precision hydrological forecast provides reliable data service for dispatching and decision-making support,provides powerful judgment basis for enterprises to go online through market-oriented bidding,and greatly improves operational benefits.