风险感知、风险态度与农户宅基地退出意愿研究——以河北省唐山市郊区农户为例

Research on risk perception,risk attitude,and rural households’withdrawal willingness of homestead:A case study of suburban farmers in Tangshan City,Hebei Province

探索农户自愿有偿退出宅基地是深化农村改革的重要内容,农户对宅基地退出的风险感知和风险态度是影响其退出意愿的重要因素。基于风险社会理论,以河北省唐山市郊区为例,利用实地农户调研数据,分析农户宅基地退出意愿、风险感知和风险态度,运用多元有序Logistics回归模型和层次回归模型探讨农户风险感知、风险态度对宅基地退出意愿的影响。结果表明,样本农户宅基地退出意愿普遍薄弱,仅有11.50%的农户愿意有偿退出宅基地。从风险感知来看,农户对宅基地退出风险总体感知度较高,66.37%的样本农户认为宅基地退出存在中高度风险,其中政策兑现风险感知度最高,其次为保障风险和经济风险,人际情感风险感知度最低。风险感知对农户宅基地退出意愿具有显著抑制作用,其中保障风险感知影响程度最为显著,其次是心理风险感知,经济风险感知影响程度最弱。从风险态度来看,13.72%的样本农户为风险偏好型,风险态度在一定程度上能够缓解风险感知对退出意愿的抑制作用。异质性分析表明,风险偏好对中等收入农户和中远郊农户退出意愿的促进作用最为显著。因此,本文提出以满足农户居住保障和社会保障为核心制定多样化补偿方案,以确保补偿资金落实到位为关键建立风险防范机制,以增加非农就业机会和非农收入为抓手提高农户抗风险能力等对策建议。

It is an important part of deepening rural reform to explore rural households’voluntary and compensated withdrawal from rural homestead,and farmers’risk perception and risk attitude towards homestead withdrawal are important factors affecting their willingness to withdraw.Based on a field survey data of rural households in the suburban area of Tangshan City,Hebei Province and applying the risk society theory,this paper analyzed the willingness,risk perception and risk attitude of rural households to withdraw from their homesteads and explored the influence of rural households’risk perceptions and risk attitudes on their willingness to withdraw by the multivariate ordered Logistics regression model and the hierarchical regression model.Results show that the sample farmers’willingness to withdraw from the homestead is generally weak,only 11.50%of farmers are willing to withdraw from the homestead with compensation.From the perspective of risk perception,the overall perception of farmers on the risk of homestead withdrawal is relatively high,and 66.37%of the sample farmers evaluate homestead withdrawal as medium and high risk,among which the perception of policy fulfillment risk is the highest,followed by security risk and economic risk.While the perception of interpersonal emotion risk is the lowest.Risk perception generates a significant inhibitory effect on farmers’willingness to withdraw from homestead,among which security risk perception has the most significant impact,followed by psychological risk perception,and economic risk perception has the weakest impact.As for risk attitude,13.72%of the sample farmers are risk preference type,and risk attitude can alleviate the inhibitory effect of risk perception on farmers’withdrawal willingness to a certain extent.The heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that risk preference has the most significant contribution to the withdraw willingness of middleincome farmers and farmers in the middle and far suburbs.Therefore,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,including developing diversified compensation schemes with the core of satisfying farmers’housing security and social security needs,establishing a risk prevention mechanism with the key of ensuring the implementation of compensation funds,and improving farmers’risk resistance capacities with the focus on increasing non-agricultural employment opportunities and non-agricultural income.