信息通信技术能否促进农村产业结构升级——来自北京市第三次全国农业普查的证据

Does ICT promote the upgrading of rural industrial structure:Evidence from the third national agricultural census in Beijing

信息通信技术(ICT)作为获取信息、分享和利用资源的重要媒介,为农村经济发展和现代乡村产业体系的构建带来了新机遇。基于最新一次全国农业普查北京市调查的村级数据,采用内生扩展回归模型、广义倾向得分匹配和工具分位数回归等方法,分析ICT对农村产业结构升级的影响,探讨ICT对农村产业结构水平的作用路径。结果表明,在2851个样本村中使用ICT的农户比例在50%及以上的村共有1503个,占总样本村的52.72%,平均产业结构水平为6.53,ICT使用比例较高的村的产业结构水平也较高。在未达到现有资源禀赋约束下的最优产业结构水平时,ICT能够显著促进农村产业结构升级,在超过这一水平后,ICT对农村产业结构水平不再具有正向作用,二者之间呈较为稳定的“倒U型”关系。ICT对产业结构水平位于中间和中间偏上的农村地区,有明显的“扶优做强”特性。据此,建议加紧完善农村网络基础设施,引导支持农村居民借助ICT发展农村电子商务等新产业,开拓农村产业的新发展模式,利用ICT激活乡村产业发展所需各类要素资源,同时瞄准不同等级产业结构水平的地区,制定更有针对性的具体措施。

As an important medium for obtaining information and sharing and utilizing resources,the information and communication technology(ICT)has brought new opportunities for the development of rural economy and the construction of modern rural industrial system.Based on the village-level data of the latest national agricultural census in Beijing,this paper analyzed the impacts of ICT on the upgrading of rural industrial structure by the endogenous expansion regression model and the generalized propensity score matching and instrumental variable quantile regression model and discussed the action path of ICT on the level of rural industrial structure.Results show that:there are 1503 villages in which the proportion of farmers using ICT in 2851 sample villages is 50%or more,accounting for 52.72%of the total sample villages.The average level of industrial structure is 6.53.The industrial structure level of villages with a high proportion of ICT use is also high.ICT can significantly promote the upgrading of rural industrial structure when it does not reach the optimal level of industrial structure constrained by the existing resource endowment.After exceeding this optimal level,ICT no longer has a positive effect on the level of rural industrial structure,and there is a relatively stable“inverted U”shape relationship between them.ICT has obvious characteristics of“supporting the best and strengthening”in rural areas where the level of industrial structure is in the middle and above the middle.Therefore,this paper suggests:(1)to step up the improvement of rural network infrastructure,(2)to guide and support rural residents to develop rural e-commerce and other new industries with the help of ICT,and (3)to develop new development models for rural industries.At the same time,it is also important to formulate more targeted specific measures using ICT to activate the rural industrial development needs of various elements of resources while aiming at different levels of industrial structure of the region.