欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国碳市场建设的启示

The Enlightenment of EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s Carbon Market Construction

碳关税将会改变相关出口产业的成本效率,进而对我国贸易产生负面影响。根据欧盟碳边境调节机制的设计,对欧盟出口产品需缴纳的碳关税将反映欧盟碳价格的动态变化,导致碳关税对贸易的负面影响延伸到碳价格传导的外溢影响,而目前尚未有文献从碳市场角度分析碳关税的影响和应对。本文基于欧盟的征收范围和标准,简单测算了碳边境调节机制对我国相关行业出口成本和数量的影响,发现每年四类产品将被征收约1.79-2.03亿欧元碳关税。在此基础上,本文模拟受影响企业的“碳行为”变化,发现它们需额外支付对应的403万个碳配额,配额需求的增大也将导致中国碳价格水平持续上涨。这给我国碳市场建设带来以下启示:应推动中国碳市场与欧洲对标,短期内保持中欧碳市场适度隔离,促成我国碳中介机构尽快设立,推动我国碳交易市场和碳金融市场紧密结合。

Carbon tariff will change the cost efficiency of related export industries,and then have a negative impact on China’s trade.In particular,according to the design of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM),the carbon tariffs of EU imports have to reflect the dynamic changes of the EU’s carbon prices,leading to the negative impact of carbon tariffs on trade extending to the spillover impact of carbon price transmission.At present,there are less literatures to analyze the impact and response to carbon tariffs from the perspective of the carbon market.Based on this logic,this paper simply calculates the impact of CBAM on the export cost and quantity of relevant industries in China according to the EU levy range and standard.It is found that four types of products will be subject to carbon tariffs of about 179-203 million euros each year.On this basis,we simulate the changes of“carbon behaviors”of those affected businesses and find that they need to pay an additional 4.03 million carbon quotas.The increase in quota demand will also lead to the continuous rise in China’s carbon price level.This has brought the following enlightenment to the construction of China’s carbon market.It should be promoted to the benchmark with Europe,but kept moderately isolated with EU-ETS in the short term.It also needs to establish China’s carbon intermediaries as soon as possible,and promote the close integration of China’s carbon emissions trading market and carbon financial market.