管理层超额乐观语调“如愿”降低了股价同步性吗?——基于文本分析的经验证据

Does Abnormal Optimistic Tone of Management“Deliberately”Reduce the Stock Price Synchronicity?——Empirical Evidence Based on Textual Analysis

本文以2013-2020年我国A股上市公司为研究样本,验证了管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)超额乐观语调管理的操纵行为“降低”了股价同步性,且在微利公司中更加显著。本文还检验了该结论在微超越与微迎合公司中的稳健性,并通过了整体时间序列检验。在拓展性研究中,发现盈余管理与MD&A超额乐观语调具有互补作用,以更加复杂隐蔽的方式“降低”股价同步性;而财务报告问询函能够抑制这种“蓄意”降低作用,充分验证了非处罚性监管的必要性与有效性。

By using 2013-2020 A-share listed companies in China as the research sample,this paper proves the abnormal optimistic tone manipulation on Management Discussion and Analysis(MD&A)reduces the stock price synchronicity,and it is more significant in the meet-or-beat earnings thresholds(zero earnings).In addition,the robustness of this conclusion in earnings thresholds(past earnings levels and analysts’consensus forecasts)are tested and the overall time series test is performed.Further,in the extended study,it is shown that earnings management and MD&A abnormal optimistic tone have complementary effects to reduce stock price synchronization in a more complex and hidden way.Then this study found that financial reporting inquiries can inhibit this“deliberate”reduction,and fully verify the necessity and effectiveness of non-penalty supervision.