RCEP对区域经济一体化水平的影响研究——基于贸易壁垒削减的GTAP模拟预测

The Impact of RCEP on the Level of Regional Economic Integration:A GTAP Simulation Based on Trade Barrier Reduction

2022年1月正式生效的区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)将伴随广泛的贸易壁垒削减措施,其经济效应备受关注。使用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)予以模拟预测,并构建区域经济一体化水平测度体系深度探究RCEP对区域经济一体化水平的影响。研究结果显示:(1)RCEP实施能为成员国普遍带来正向经济效应;(2)RCEP生效实施后,成员国虽不能在经济指标上完全趋于一致,但由于经济波动联系加强而产生的产业一体化水平的提高,区域经济一体化水平将实现提升;(3)中国的宏观经济指标增长幅度普遍较小,第一、二产业产出将遭受负面冲击。故而,RCEP成员国需帮助最不发达国家强化自身能力,并通过协调性机构对成员国要素价格、产业发展、外资流入予以监控和干预,以促进区域经济一体化水平全面提升。在此过程中,中国可通过持续完善市场机制、促进要素区域流动、培育贸易投资一体化实体、把握市场放宽机遇等措施,主动而充分地融入一体化发展进程,并辅以科学有效的产业政策来把握机遇、规避冲击。

RCEP,which came into effect in January 2022,is accompanied by a wide range of trade barrier reduction measures.Its economic effects which have drawn much attention will be predicted by a GTAP model in this paper.In addition,a measurement system of regional economic integration level will be constructed to explore the change of regional economic integration level before and after RCEP implementation.The results show that:(1)The implementation of RCEP will bring positive economic effects.(2)After the implementation of RCEP,although the economic indicators of RCEP member countries won’t be completely consistent,the level of regional economic integration will be promoted mainly due to the improvement of the level of industrial integration caused by the strengthening of the relationship between economic fluctuations.(3)Growth of China’s macroeconomic indicators will be generally small,and its primary and secondary industrial output will suffer a negative impact.Therefore,in order to promote the overall level of regional economic integration,RCEP members need to help least developed countries strengthen their capacity and set up coordinating institutions to monitor and intervene in factor prices,industrial development and foreign investment inflow of members.In this process,China can actively and fully integrate into the development process of integration by continuously improving the market mechanism,promoting regional flow of factors,cultivating integrated entities of trade and investment,seizing the opportunities of market liberalization and so on,and supplement by sound industrial policies to grasp opportunities and avoid shocks.