强可持续视角下中国碳中和指数的区域差异、结构差异及分布差异

Regional Differences,Structural Differences and Distribution Differences of Carbon Neutralization Index in China from the Perspective of Strong Sustainability

基于强可持续发展理论与碳中和的科学内涵构建碳中和水平综合评价体系,利用秩一约束的组合评价法测算2005—2020年中国区域碳中和指数,采用Dagum基尼系数揭示碳中和水平的区域差异及来源,运用Oaxaca-Blinder分解法揭示碳中和水平的结构差异,借助再中心化影响函数揭示碳中和水平的分布差异。研究发现:中国碳中和指数整体不高但呈上升趋势,省域碳中和指数存在“双高型”“低高型”“高低型”和“双低型”四类;区域碳中和水平不平衡,呈现出中部地区高、东西部地区低的倒U型格局;碳中和指数的区域差异主要来自超变密度;碳中和指数的结构差异主要来自吸收维度的人工条件和排放维度的生活排放;碳中和指数的分布差异主要来自吸收维度。因此,碳中和的实现需要多方协同,既要地区经济社会发展模式的协同转型,也要居民生活模式的协同转变,更要碳汇碳捕捉的协同转换。

Based on the strong sustainability theory and the scientific connotation of carbon neutrality,a comprehensive evaluation system for carbon neutrality level is constructed.The regional carbon neutrality index in China from 2005 to 2020 is calculated by the combined evaluation method with the rank one constraint.Using the Dagum Gini coefficient,regional differences and sources of carbon neutrality levels are revealed.The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method is used to reveal the structural differences of carbon neutrality levels,with the distribution differences of carbon neutrality levels revealed by means of the recentralization effect function.It is found in the study that the overall carbon neutrality index in China is not high but is on the rise,and that there are four types of provincial carbon neutrality index:“double high”,“low high”,“high low”and“double low”;the regional carbon neutralization level is unbalanced,indicating an inverted U-shaped pattern of high in the middle and low in the east and west;the regional difference of carbon neutrality index is due mainly to the hypervariable density.The structural difference of the carbon neutral index is mainly from the artificial conditions of the absorption dimension and the living emissions of the emission dimension,and the distribution difference of the carbon neutral index mainly from the absorption dimension.The realization of carbon neutrality requires the close coordination of many parties.Therefore,the realization of carbon neutrality requires multi-party cooperation,including the coordinated transformation of regional economic and social development mode,the coordinated transformation of residents’living mode,and the coordinated transformation of carbon sink and carbon capture.