探索构建中国特色宏观经济调控政策的新体系与新方向

Exploration and Construction of a New Direction and New System of Macroeconomic Regulation and Control Policies with Chinese Characteristics

中国既有的传统宏观经济调控政策在所面临的各种内外环境变化的情形下,已经发生政策效果全面弱化甚至基本失效等一系列重大现象。中国的经济结构近似于“大破大立式”的调整过程及其蕴含的对各类微观经济主体行为逻辑造成的根本性变化,是导致当前中国传统宏观经济调控政策实施效果发生弱化甚至失效的决定性因素,而新冠疫情冲击只是诱发和加剧了中国传统宏观经济调控政策实施效果弱化甚至失效现象。在对当前中国传统宏观经济调控政策失灵失效的内在动因与障碍机制进行全面深入分析的基础上,着重阐述如何构建中国宏观经济调控政策新体系的基本架构及其可能建构的方向,这可描述为“产业政策+金融政策+财政政策+货币政策”的“四位一体式”的中国特色宏观经济调控政策体系及其新型组合。据此,我们提出以稳定和促进未来潜在经济水平增速为导向的新型组合政策体系,以促进国民收入结构优化升级和消费结构优化升级为导向的新型组合政策体系,以实现高水平科技自立自强和构建全球最为前沿创新型国家为导向的新型组合政策体系的三大建构方向。在此基础上,提出了构建中国特色宏观经济调控政策的重点改革领域与具体建议。

Under the constraints of various internal and external environmental changes,China′s existing traditional macroeconomic regulation and control policies have undergone a series of major phenomena,such as the overall weakening or even basic failure of the policy effect.China′s economic structure reform is similar to the adjustment process of"massive destruction and then extensive construction"and its underlying fundamental changes in the behavioral logic of various microeconomic subjects,which is the decisive factor leading to the weakening or even invalidation of the implementation effect of China′s traditional macroeconomic regulation and control policies,while the impact of COVID-19 has only induced or exacerbated the weakening or even invalidation of the implementation effect of China′s traditional macroeconomic regulation and control policies.On the basis of a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the internal causes and obstacle mechanisms of the failure of China′s traditional macroeconomic regulation and control policies,this paper focuses on how to build the basic framework and possible construction direction of the new system of China′s macroeconomic regulation and control policies,which can be described as the"four-in-one"macroeconomic regulation and control policy system with Chinese characteristics and its new combination of"industrial policy,financial policy,fiscal policy,and monetary policy".Accordingly,we propose three major construction directions of a new combination policy system oriented to stabilizing and promoting the future potential economic growth level,a new combination policy system oriented to promoting the optimization and upgrading the national income structure and the consumption structure,and a new combination policy system oriented to achieving a high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and building the world′s most cutting-edge innovative country.On this basis,the paper puts forward the key reform areas and specific suggestions for the construction of macroeconomic regulation and control policies with Chinese characteristics.