流动资产分布、时间偏好与家庭边际消费倾向的异质性——基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)的实证分析

Distribution of Liquid Assets,Time Preference and Heterogeneity of Household Marginal Propensity to Consume——Estimation based on the Dataset of China Household Finance Survey

基于包含异质性贴现因子的缓冲存货模型,利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2013、2015与2017年三轮调查数据,考察了中国家庭流动资产分布下边际消费倾向的异质性,并以购建房意愿作为时间偏好的代理变量检验了时间偏好与消费储蓄行为之间的关系。研究表明:中国家庭流动资产分布与边际消费倾向呈倒“U”形关系,而消费信贷弱化了收入冲击对消费变化的影响;购建房意愿对家庭的财富积累具有显著的促进作用,并会放大家庭消费对收入冲击的反应,且购建房意愿所形成的储蓄动机主要挤出了享受及发展型消费。政府应当进一步丰富家庭的资产配置渠道,并在实施消费刺激政策时,加大对有购建房意愿或流动资产配置较少家庭的转移支付力度。

Based on the stock model with heterogeneous discount factors,this paper uses the data from China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2013,2015 and 2017 to examine the heterogeneity of marginal propensity to consume under the distribution of China′s household liquid assets,and tests the relationship between time preference and consumption saving behavior with the willingness to purchase or build houses as the proxy variable of time preference.The results show that the relationship between the distribution of household liquid assets and marginal propensity to consume in China takes on an inverted"U"shape,while consumer credit weakens the impact of income shock on consumption changes;the willingness to purchase or build houses plays a significant role in promoting the wealth accumulation of families,and will amplify the response of household consumption to the impact of income shock,and the savings motivation formed by the willingness to purchase or build houses has mainly squeezed out enjoyment and development oriented consumption.It is suggested that our government should further enrich the asset allocation channels of households,and increase the transfer payment to households who are willing to purchase or build houses or those who have less liquid asset allocation when implementing the consumption stimulus policy.