后危机时代经济周期波动国际联动的网络结构

The Network Structure of Transnational National Linkage of Cyclical Economic Fluctuations in Post-crisis Era

采用2009—2019年71个经济体的季度数据和Granger因果关系检验方法确定经济周期波动国际联动的网络结构,利用社会网络分析法从出入度、中心性、PageRank得分、凝聚子群、核心—边缘结构等角度对其进行分析。研究发现:各个经济体的经济周期波动存在较为密切的联系,经济周期波动国际传递是相当普遍的经济现象;在经济周期波动国际联动网络中,欧洲的重要性显著高于其他大洲;处于经济周期波动国际联动网络的核心区域的经济体以欧洲和南美洲居多,亚洲、非洲和北美洲的国家较多处于经济周期波动国际联动网络的边缘区域;经济周期国际联动网络主要包括以欧盟重要成员国为主体的群组、以中小规模经济体为主体的群组、大规模经济体与中小规模经济体混合构成的群组等三类凝聚子群。在经济周期波动存在广泛、复杂联系的环境中,政府经贸政策和发展战略的制定需要综合考虑面临的外部国际条件以及经贸政策和发展战略的对外影响。

The network structure of the international linkage of cyclical economic fluctuations is determined by adopting the quarterly data of 71 economies between 2009 and 2019 and the Granger causality test.The social network analysis is used to analyze the network structure from the perspectives of in-degree,out-degree,centrality,PageRank score,cohesive subgroup,core-edge structure and so on.The research finds that cyclical economic fluctuations of various economies are closely related,and the transnational transmission of cyclical economic fluctuations is a quite common economic phenomenon;in the transnational linkage network of cyclical economic fluctuations,Europe is of remarkably greater significance than other continents;most economies in the core region of the transnational linkage network of cyclical economic fluctuations are located in Europe and South America,while most countries in Asia,Africa and North America are in the marginal region of the transnational linkage network of cyclical economic fluctuations;the transnational linkage network of economic cycle mainly includes three cohesive sub-groups:the group with important EU Member States as the main body,the group with small and medium-sized economies as the main body,and the hybrid group consisting of large-scale economies and small and medium-sized economies.In the case of wide range and complex links in cyclical economic fluctuations,the formulation of government economic and trade policies and development strategies is required to put the external international conditions and the outbound impact of economic and trade policies and development strategies into consideration.