中国OFDI对“一带一路”国家经济增长的主要作用路径研究

Research on the Main Action Path of China's OFDI on Economic Growth of the Belt and Road Countries

基于2003—2017年65个国家的数据,文章构建了个体固定效应下多重链式中介效应模型,研究了中国对外直接投资对“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长的中介效应和传导作用机制,并将65国分成逆梯度组和顺梯度组进行对比检验。研究发现:(1)中国对外直接投资主要通过经济规模这一中介效应对“一带一路”沿线国家的经济起推动作用,其次是技术溢出中介效应,产业结构中介效应最小;(2)在全样本组中,中国对外直接投资主要通过“中国对外直接投资→资本积累→技术进步→经济增长”这一链式传导路径促进“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长;(3)顺梯度组中的链式传导路径与全样本组相同,而在逆梯度组中的链式传导路径则为“中国对外直接投资→技术进步→产业结构升级→经济增长”。因此,中国应该加大投资力度,并发挥中国对外直接投资的链式传导机制作用,促进“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长。

Based on the data of 65 countries from 2003 to 2017,this paper studied the mediation effect and transmission mechanism of China's direct investment on economic growth of the Belt and Road countries by constructing a multi-chain mediating model of individual fixed effect.And we divided 65 countries into counter gradient group and gradient group for comparative test.The results showed that:(1)China's direct investment significantly promoted economic growth of the Belt and Road countries,and after the decomposition of the mediation effect,China's direct investment mainly influenced economic growth of the Belt and Road countries through the scale effect,followed by the technology effect and the structure effect.(2)In the full sample group,China's direct investment mainly promoted economic growth of the Belt and Road countries by the chain transmission mechanism of‘China's direct investment→capital accumulation→technological progress→economic growth􀆳.(3)The chain conduction mechanism in the gradient group was the same as in the full sample group,while the chain transmission mechanism was‘China's direct investment→technological progress→industrial structure upgrading→economic growth􀆳in the counter gradient group.Thus,China can promote economic growth of the Belt and Road countries by increasing China's direct investment and giving full play to the chain transmission mechanism of China's direct investment.