基于AHP-CRITIC的中国水资源安全综合评价及影响因素研究

Comprehensive Assessment of China's Water Resources Security Based on AHP-CRITIC and Research on Influencing Factors

为了解中国水资源安全水平,本文从自然禀赋、经济、社会和生态环境方面选取18个指标构建中国水资源安全评价体系。首先,对2005-2020年中国水资源安全水平进行评价,得出2005-2011年中国水资源处于比较危险状态,影响水资源安全的障碍因子为经济发展水平不高和水资源自然禀赋较低;2011年后水资源安全水平逐渐提升,向比较安全状态转变,该阶段障碍因子为社会发展水平和生态环境。其次,利用ARIMA(0,1,4)模型对2021-2025年中国水资源安全水平进行预测,结果表明2021-2025年中国水资源安全得分逐年增加。最后,为进一步提高我国水资源安全水平提出合理的政策建议。

In order to understand the level of China's water security,this paper selects 18 indicators from the aspects of natural endowment,economy,society and ecological environment to construct China's water resources security evaluation system.Firstly,the evaluation of China's water resource security from 2005 to 2020 shows that China's water resources were in a relatively dangerous state from 2005 to 2011,and the obstacles affecting water resource security were low economic development level and low natural endowment of water resources.After 2011,the level of water security gradually improved,and the transition to a relatively safe state was changed to a relatively safe state,and the obstacles at this stage were the level of social development and ecological environment.Secondly,the ARIMA(0,1,4)model is used to predict China's water security level from 2021 to 2025,and the results show that China's water security score increases year by year from 2021 to 2025.Finally,reasonable policy suggestions are put forward to further improve the level of China's water resources security.