聊城市农业现代化水平测度与实现路径选择研究

Study on Level Measurement and Realization Path Selection of Agricultural Modernization in Liaocheng City

为深入分析聊城市农业现代化发展状况,以聊城市8个地区为研究对象,构建了包含农业生产投入、农业产出水平、农村社会发展及农业可持续发展4个子系统16个因子在内的农业现代化水平测度指标体系。基于2013—2020年聊城市农业发展的面板数据,借助熵值法系统测度聊城市农业现代化发展水平,并采用障碍度诊断模型,进一步探究阻碍农业现代化发展的障碍因子,最后提出提升农业现代化发展水平的实现路径。研究结果表明:(1)从时间上看,聊城市农业现代化发展水平由2013年的0.2946提升至2020年的0.4516,呈波动增长态势。其中农业产出水平、农村社会发展总体上呈波动上升趋势,农业可持续发展总体上波动不大,而农业投入水平呈波动下降态势。(2)从区域差异上看,农业现代化发展较快的地区是莘县、东昌府区、茌平区、阳谷县,而冠县、临清市、东阿县和高唐县的农业现代化发展水平相对落后。(3)整体上看,农业投入水平与农村社会发展是阻碍农业现代化发展的主要子系统,农村人均用电量、单位农作物播种面积用电量、单位农作物播种面积农机总动力和政策支持水平成为近年来影响其发展的主要障碍因子,不同时间段制约农业现代化发展的具体障碍因子存在差异。因此,为促进聊城市的农业现代化发展,应考虑利用自身区位优势,发展优势产业,加强县县农业合作交流,贯彻支农惠农政策,树立绿色发展理念,走农业绿色发展道路。

In order to deeply analyze the development status of agricultural modernization in Liaocheng city,based on the research of 8 regions in Liaocheng City,we constructed the index system of agricultural modernization level,which includes 16 factors of 4 subsystems including agricultural production input,agricultural output level,rural social development and agricultural sustainable development.Based on the panel data of agricultural development in Liaocheng City from 2013 to 2020,the entropy method was used to systematically measure the agricultural modernization development level in Liaocheng City,and the obstacle degree diagnosis model was adopted to further explore the obstacle factors that hinder the development of agricultural modernization.Finally,the realization path of promoting agricultural modernization development level was put forward.The results showed that:(1)From the perspective of time,the development level of agricultural modernization in Liaocheng City increased from 0.2946 in 2013 to 0.4516 in 2020,showing a fluctuating growth trend.The level of agricultural output and rural social development fluctuated upward on the whole.The level of agricultural sustainable development fluctuated little on the whole,and the level of agricultural input fluctuated downward.(2)From the perspective of regional differences,the areas with faster development of agricultural modernization are Xinxian County,Dongchangfu District,Chiping District,Yanggu County,while Guanxian County,Linqing City,Donga County and Gaotang County have lower level of agricultural modernization development.(3)Overall,agricultural input level and rural social development are the main subsystems hindering the development of agricultural modernization.Rural per capita electricity consumption,electricity consumption per unit of crop sown area,total power of agricultural machinery per unit of crop sown area and policy support level have become the main obstacle factors affecting its development in recent years.The specific obstacle factors that restrict the development of agricultural modernization are different in different periods.Therefore,in order to promote agricultural modernization development in Liaocheng City,we should consider taking advantage of our location advantages,developing advantageous industries,strengthening agricultural cooperation and exchanges among counties,implementing the policy of supporting agriculture and benefiting agriculture,setting up the concept of green development and taking the road of green agricultural development.