西藏经济社会发展与生态环境耦合协调研究

Study on the Coupling Coordinating of Economic Society Development and Ecological Environment in Tibet Autonomous Region

以西藏自治区2007年-2016年经济社会与生态环境时间序列数据为基础,集成运用熵值法、综合指数法及耦合协调度模型,探究西藏经济社会发展与生态环境状态、耦合协调水平及其演化趋势,以期为新常态下促进西藏经济社会与生态环境协调发展提供参考.研究结果表明:(1)2007年-2016年西藏经济社会发展水平逐年上升,生态环境综合发展指数表现为波动中缓慢上升的变化趋势,生态经济复合系统指数从0.201 6上升至0.549 4,表明系统综合效益在不断提升.(2)研究期间耦合度保持在0.764 1与0.999 8的高位状态,说明经济社会发展与生态环境呈现出明显的正相关,二者具有互为促进的关系.(3)耦合协调度由0.363 6上升至0.740 8,耦合协调水平从严重失调演进为良好协调状态,当前两者的发展水平差异呈现为生态环境滞后型.

Based on the time series data of economic society and ecological environment of Tibet Autonomous Region from 2007 to 2016,the entropy value method,comprehensive index method and coupling coordination degree model were integrated to explore the economic-social growth and ecological environment of Tibet,the coupling coordination level and their evolution trend,This study can provide reference for decision-making in promoting the integrated development of Tibet's economy and ecological civilization under the new normal.The results showed as follows:(1)The economic and social development level of Tibet increased year by year from 2007 to 2016.The comprehensive development index of ecological environment showed a tendency to rise in fluctuation.The ecological economy composite system index rose from 0.2016 to 0.5494,indicating that the benefits of the comprehensive system are continuously improving.(2)The coupling degree is maintained at 0.7641 and 0.9998,indicating that the economic-social growth is positively correlated with the ecological environment,and the coupling degree is high.The two have a mutually reinforcing relationship.(3)The coupling coordination index increased from 0.3636 to 0.7408.The level of coupling coordination has evolved from a serious imbalance to a well-coordinated state,and the current development level difference between the two shows a lagging ecological environment.