政府购买公共体育服务政策创新扩散探究——面向中国31个省份的事件史分析

Research on Policy Diffusion and Influencing Factors of Government Purchase of Public Sports Services:Event History Analysis Based on Data of 31 Provinces’in China

政策作为优化公共体育服务的重要载体,是提升政府治理能力的重要砝码。以2013-2019年中国31个省级政府购买公共体育服务政策面板数据为基础,通过事件史分析探究政府购买公共体育服务政策创新扩散的影响因素,为推动高质量发展的公共体育服务,完善政策体系、优化治理体系、提升治理能力提供对策。研究发现:(1)政府购买公共体育服务政策具有S型曲线特征,政策颁布主要集中在华东、西北两大区域。(2)创新扩散主体方面,各省GDP对政府出台购买公共体育服务政策具有显著影响;公共支出与政策采纳的关系还不清晰,人口规模对政策采纳并无关系。(3)创新扩散客体方面,体育社会组织对政府采纳政策具有显著正向性;而公共体育需求的影响还不明确。(4)创新环境方面,中央压力对政策采纳具有正向影响,而邻近影响对政府政策采纳并无关系。

As an important channel for optimizing public sports services,policy innovation is important for improving the government’s governance capacity.Based on the data of the diffusion of panel data of 31 provincial governmental purchasing public sports services in China from 2013 to 2019,this paper analyzed the influencing factors of government procurement of public sports service with event history analysis so as to provide countermeasures for the improvement of policy system,optimization of governance system and improvement of governance ability to promote high-quality development.It was found that the government’s policy for purchasing public sports services was characteristic of an S-shaped curve,and the policy issuance was mainly concentrated in East China and Northwest China.In terms of innovation diffusion subject,provincial regional GDP had a significant impact on the government’s policy of purchasing public sports services.The relationship between public expenditure and policy adoption was not clear,and the population size had no direct relationship with policy adoption.In terms of the object of innovation diffusion,sports social organizations had a significant positive impact on the government’s adoption of the policy of purchasing public sports services.Nevertheless,the impact of public sports demand was not clear.In terms of innovation environment,the central pressure had a positive impact on policy adoption,while the proximity impact had no direct relationship with government policy adoption.