摘要
城镇发展使得生态系统服务价值发生变化,甚至显著降低,模拟未来土地利用结构,能优化国土空间结构,提高生态系统服务价值。本研究以2010、2020年土地利用类型数据,利用土地利用变化情景模拟(GeoSOS-FLUS)模型模拟不同情景下2030年土地利用状况。结果表明:4种情景下草地、未利用地都是减少,水体几乎不变,建筑用地栅格数都增加,其中基准和保护林地情景增加最多,均为25.66%,林地除保护农田基本不变外,其他三种情景变化几乎一致,增加均为3.07%;相比2020年,保护农田的生态系统服务价值降低了5.46亿元,其他三种情景的服务价值都增加,保护农田林地最高,为2901.82亿元,其他两种均为2893.07亿元。
The development of cities and towns changes or even significantly reduces the value of ecosystem services.Simulating the future land use structure can optimize the spatial structure of the country and improve the value of ecosystem services.In this study,the data of land use types in 2010 and 2020 were applied to simulate the land use status in 2030 under different scenarios by using the GeoSOS-FLUS model.The results showed that under the four scenarios,grassland and unused land were reduced,water bodies were almost unchanged,and the number of grids of building land was increased.Among them,the benchmark and protected forest land scenarios increased the most,both by 25.66%,and the forest land except protected farmland was basically unchanged.In addition,the changes in the other three scenarios were almost the same,with an increase of 3.07%;compared with 2020,the ecosystem service value of protected farmland had decreased by 546 million yuan,and the service value of the other three scenarios had increased,with protected farmland and forest land being the highest.It was 290.182 billion yuan,and the other two were close to 289.307 billion yuan.
作者
丁星明
朱诗渊
DING Xingming;ZHU Shiyuan(School of Civil and Surveying and Mapping Engineering,Jiangxi University of Science and Technology,Ganzhou Jiangxi 341000,China)
出处
《北京测绘》
2023年第3期415-419,共5页
Beijing Surveying and Mapping
