冷战后俄罗斯与北约安全困境的形成与升级

Formation and Escalation of the Security Dilemma between Russia and NATO after the Cold War

俄罗斯独立后与北约逐步形成安全困境,但双方至今没有爆发直接军事冲突,其原因在于欧洲独立主权意识的增强、俄罗斯的核威慑以及北约在常规军事实力上的优势等限制性因素的存在。这些因素延缓了安全困境的进一步升级。但俄乌冲突爆发后北约积极支持乌克兰,这意味着双方目前站在了一个非常危险的转折点上,双方都在向进攻性现实主义理念转变,安全困境可能转变为一个导向战争的螺旋。如果彼此不能通过和平谈判进行妥协,改变敌对认知,则双方直接军事冲突或难避免。从世界和平角度看,俄罗斯和北约不应再继续放任或推动事态进一步升级,而应采取“示善”措施,加强相互间合作,为双方紧张关系降温,为恢复乌克兰的和平创造条件。

After independence,Russia and NATO gradually formed a security dilemma,but there was no direct military conflict between the two sides.The existence of restrictive factors,such as the consciousness of European strategic sovereignty,Russia's nuclear deterrence and NATO's advantages in conventional military,has delayed the further escalation of the Russia-NATO security dilemma.However,after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,NATO actively supported Ukraine.Russia and NATO are at a very dangerous turning point,and both sides are changing to the concept of offensive realism.The Russia-NATO security dilemma may spiral into a war.Russia and NATO should not continue to indulge or promote further escalation of the situation,but should release goodwill,strengthen cooperation,cool tensions and create conditions for the restoration of peace in Ukraine.