地缘政治与超越边界:基于俄罗斯智库对乌克兰危机认知的分析

Geopolitics and Beyond Borders:An Analysis on Russian Think TTanks Cognition of the Ukraine Crisis

俄罗斯智库对乌克兰危机的认知主要基于现实主义分析范式,背后是鲜明的地缘政治逻辑。独特的地理特征与18世纪以来与欧洲国家的外交实践,让地缘政治思想在俄罗斯经常发挥底层逻辑作用。为向公众和国际社会阐释本国地缘政治代码,俄罗斯学界提出“无界之域”的概念,从地缘角度重新建构俄乌关系。他们认为,鉴于传统力量对比、没有自然边界和数百年共同历史经验,俄罗斯与后苏联空间邻国是没有边界的整体空间;邻国领土不被对俄罗斯不友好的大国利用,才能确保俄罗斯国家利益;乌克兰危机将对俄罗斯外交、地缘环境和经济政治产生重大影响,俄罗斯应重新思考和定位对外政策及国际关系理论。俄罗斯学者认为发展中俄关系有助于俄罗斯走出危机,但俄罗斯更应该依靠自身力量。俄罗斯将以何种方式立足世界,是俄罗斯学者主要关切的问题。

The perception of the Russia-Ukraine crisis by Russian think tanks has a distinct geopolitical image.In order to explain the geopolitical code to the public and the international community,the Russian academy has proposed the concept of a borderless space to reconstruct Russia-Ukraine relations from geopolitical perspectives.Given traditional power contrasts,the absence of natural borders and centuries of shared historical experience,Russia and its post-Soviet neighbors together have formed a borderless space.This is an important insurance for Russian national interests that the territories of neighboring countries which should not be used by powers unfriendly to Russia.The Ukrainian crisis will have a significant impact on Russia's diplomacy,geo-environment and economic politics.Russia should rethink and reposition its foreign policy and international relations theory.Russian scholars believe that the development of Russian-Chinese relations will help Russia get out of the crisis,but Russia should rely more on its own strength.The main concern of Russian scholars is how Russia will stand in the world.