2018年以来美国主流智库对中国北极政策及活动的认知及所提出的对策

U.S.think tanks’perception and suggestion of China’s Arctic policies and activities since 2018

在中美大国竞争背景下,近年来北极问题在美国政府议程中的优先级日益凸显,并引起美国主流智库的关注。准确把握美国主流智库对中国北极政策及活动的主要认知及应对策略,对中国判断今后美国政府在北极地区的对华政策取向有重要作用。本文选取5家美国主流智库的10份代表性研究成果作为主要研究样本,并挑选另外4家非美国智库的7份报告以拓宽研究角度。研究发现美国主流智库围绕中国北极活动的影响及意图进行了深入探讨,重点关注了中俄北极合作,对美国政府如何应对中国北极政策与活动提供了相关对策建议。总体来看,美国主流智库认为中国的北极政策着眼长期博弈,强调中国正通过经济、科考活动扩大在北极的影响力,对中国北极活动造成影响的认识较为负面;同时美国主流智库为拜登政府提供了包括遏制中国、分化中俄、强化自身和重塑联盟等4个方面的应对策略。

In the current competitive context between China and the United States of America(hereafter U.S.),the importance of Arctic-related issues for the U.S.government has markedly increased.Therefore,such issues have become a focus point for prominent U.S.think tanks.Understanding the think tanks’perception of China’s Arctic policy and their possible suggestions to the U.S.government could allow China to understand U.S.policy toward China in the Arctic.Ten representative reports from five major U.S.think tanks were selected as a research sample;seven reports from four non-U.S.think tanks were used for a broader perspective.The research sample indicates that U.S.think tanks have conducted comprehensive discussions on the influence and purpose of China’s Arctic activities,with a focus on Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation.Our analysis shows a consensus among the U.S.think tanks that China is pursuing a long-term policy in the Arctic.The reports also emphasize that China is using economic and scientific means to expand its physical presence and strategic influence in the Arctic region.Global evaluation of China’s Arctic policy by the U.S.think tanks was negative.Furthermore,they suggested four countermeasures to the U.S.government in response to China’s Arctic policies and activities:containing China economically,strengthening the U.S.Arctic presence and intervention capacity,dividing China and Russia,and reshaping the alliance in the Arctic.