预测模型在临床研究中的应用

Application of prediction models in clinical research

慢性疾病已成为全球70岁以下人群面临的重要公共卫生问题,造成了极大的经济负担和疾病负担。临床预测模型的建立,有助于在慢性病早期或前期通过指标检测的方式提前预知研究对象患某病风险或者预后效果,并在慢性病临床实践中发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文介绍了临床诊断预测模型和临床预后预测模型,并从临床预测模型的应用视角入手,综述了临床数据处理、临床预测模型建立、可视化方法和模型评估的方法,有助于预测模型在临床研究的正确和合理使用。

Chronic diseases have become an important public health problem for people under 70 years of age worldwide,while also causing a great economic burden.The establishment of clinical prediction models can help to predict the risk of a disease or the prognostic effect of a study subject in advance by means of index testing at the early stage of chronic diseases,and plays an increasingly important role in clinical practice.This study introduces clinical diagnostic prediction models and clinical prognostic prediction models,and reviews clinical data processing,clinical prediction model building,visualization methods and model evaluation from the perspective of the application of clinical prediction models,which contribute to the correct and reasonable use of prediction models in clinical research.