基于技术进步的木质林产品贸易碳排放效应研究

Impact of Forest Products Trade on Carbon Emissions Based on the Technological Progress

技术进步是实现碳减排的重要途径,其对我国林产品贸易碳排放效应的作用效果还有待进一步探究。基于此,选取木质林产品作为林产品的典型代表,利用2010-2019年我国27个省(市、自治区)的数据,构建动态面板模型,通过系统GMM方法探究我国木质林产品贸易对碳排放的影响效应,分析不同技术进步路径在其中的作用机制。结果表明,林产品贸易直接效应会导致林产品碳排放的增加,对环境呈负面影响,而技术效应呈正面影响,但技术利用效率等仍有待提高;技术引进路径的中间作用效果检验成立,而自主创新结果不显著,且证实技术进步在其中并非起到“中介作用”,而是遮掩了对外贸易对环境的直接负面影响。在此基础上,对我国林产品贸易可持续发展做进一步展望。

Technological progress is an important way to achieve carbon emission reduction,and its effect on the carbon emission effect of forest products trade in China needs to be further explored.Based on this,we selected woody forest products as a typical representative of forest products,and used the data of 27 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities from 2010 to 2019 in China to establish a dynamic panel model to explore the impact of wood forest product trade on carbon emissions in China through systematic GMM method,and analyzed the mechanism of different technological progress paths.The results show that the direct effect of trade in forest products leads to the increase of carbon emissions from forest products,which has a negative impact on the environment.While the technical effect has a positive impact,the technical aspects such as utilization efficiency still need to be improved.The intermediate effect test of the technology introduction path is established,while the independent innovation is not conspicuous,and it is confirmed that technological progress does not play an“intermediary role”,but suppresses the direct negative impact of foreign trade on the environment instead.Based on the above-mentioned findings,we made further prospects for the sustainable development of forest products trade of China.