中国植物油进口替代弹性测度及安全性分析

Elasticity Measure and Safety Analysis of Import Substitution of Vegetable Oil in China

近年来,中国大量进口油料及植物油,油料及植物油的进口依存度居高不下,研究植物油的进口安全对保障人民生活和食品工业发展具有重要意义。本文利用面板数据计算2001—2020年分阶段的中国植物油Armington替代弹性数值,发现该数值呈现先增长后减小的现象,反映出中国植物油进口受国内和国际因素影响明显,可以较为准确地衡量进口安全性。在此基础上,分析了中国主要植物油进口贸易伙伴的供应安全性,发现部分国家进口产出弹性常年小于1,供给安全性较差。建议调整中国植物油进口结构,挖掘“一带一路”沿线国家的供给潜力,加快植物油加工业的产业升级,科学调整农业种植结构,提高植物油供给安全性。

In recent years,China has imported a large number of oil and vegetable oil,and the import dependence of oil and vegetable oil remains high.It is of great significance to study the import safety of vegetable oil to ensure people’s life and the development of food industry.Using panel data to calculate the Armington substitution elasticity of vegetable oil in China from 2001 to 2020,it is found that the value increases at first and then decreases,which reflects that China’s vegetable oil import is obviously affected by domestic and international factors,so it can accurately measure the import safety.On this basis,the supply security of China’s main vegetable oil import trading partners is analyzed,and it is found that the import-output elasticity of some countries is more than 1 all the year round,which has higher security,while the supply security of some countries is less than 1 all the year round.It is suggested to adjust China’s vegetable oil import structure,tap the supply potential of“Belt and Road Initiative”countries,speed up the industrial upgrading of vegetable oil processing industry,scientifically adjust agricultural planting structure,and improve the safety of vegetable oil supply.