中国饲料粮生产布局时空变迁及影响因素研究

Study of the Spatial and Temporal Changes in the Layout of Feed Grain Production in China and the Factors Influencing it

研究中国饲料粮生产布局变迁及影响因素对合理布局饲料粮生产、保障粮食安全具有重要意义。本文测算了2010-2020年饲料粮、口粮产量,具体分析了饲料粮、口粮生产的空间变迁规律及重心移动轨迹,并运用空间杜宾模型进一步探究影响饲料粮生产布局的因素。①研究期间,中国整体饲料粮生产能力不断提高,饲料粮主产省份增加,口粮生产布局趋于稳定。二者主产省份略有重合,但并不十分一致。②饲料粮与口粮生产重心均有向东北方向移动的趋势。③口粮绝对安全,饲料粮供给保障能力亟须提高。④农村人均可支配收入、农业比较收益、交通运输线里程、生产设备投资、化肥施用量、耕地灌溉面积和财政支农对于本地饲料粮产量有正向促进效果。邻近地区农村人均可支配收入、农业比较收益、饲料粮从业人数和财政支农会影响本地区的饲料粮生产,具有较强的空间溢出效应。最后,提出促进饲料粮生产的政策建议。

It is of great significance to study the changes and influencing factors of feed grain production distribution in China for rational distribution of feed grain production and food security.This paper calculated the output of feed grain and ration from 2010 to 2020,specifically analyzed the spatial change law of feed grain and ration production and the locus of gravity center movement,and further explored the factors affecting feed grain production layout by using the spatial Dubin model.①During the study period,China’s overall feed grain production capacity continued to improve,the number of major feed grain producing provinces increased,and the distribution of rations production tended to be stable.The two major provinces overlap slightly,but they are not very consistent.②The barycenter of feed grain and ration production tends to move to the northeast.③Rations are absolutely safe,and the feed grain supply guarantee capacity needs to be improved urgently.④Rural per capita disposable income,agricultural comparative income,transportation line mileage,investment in production equipment,fertilizer application amount,farmland irrigation area and financial support for agriculture have a positive effect on local feed grain output.Rural per capita disposable income,agricultural comparative income,number of feed grain employees and financial support for agriculture in adjacent areas will affect feed grain production in this region,which has a strong spatial spillover effect.Finally,policy recommendations to promote feed grain production are put forward.