国际油轮运输市场:先抑后扬

International Tanker Market Overview:First Suppress and Then Rise

2023年1月,油轮市场先抑后扬。原油轮市场,月初中国商务部下发2023年第二批原油非国营贸易配额1182万吨,同比去年第二批上涨112.2%,原油进口回暖预期勉力支撑高位运价。月中,中国春节假期前进口节奏放缓,运价逐渐下滑。月末,美国通胀指标好转,美元指数下跌,油价预期反弹,而随着逢低补库窗口的关闭,节后抢运潮再现,推动运价回暖。2022年12月,欧佩克原油产量2897万桶/日,环比增长0.3%,同比增长3.9%。中国原油进口量4807万吨,环比上升2.8%。成品油轮市场,除太平洋区MR型船跌幅较小外,各航线前期超涨的运价均开始松动,出现大幅下滑。

In January 2023,the tanker market was suppressed first and then rose.As for the crude sector,at the beginning of January,China’s Ministry of Commerce released 11.82m tonnes of crude oil trade quota for the non-State-owned sector of the year,112.2%more than the first batch.The rebounding import expectation strongly supports the high level of freight rates.In mid-January,imports slowed down before the Chinese Spring Festival,bringing down the rates gradually.In the month end,the inflation index of the US improved;US dollar index fell;oil price expectation rebounded.However,as the window for restocking at low price closed,rush shipping after the festival recurred and pushed up rates to recover.In December 2022,OPEC crude output was 28.97 mb/d,up 0.3%MoM and up 3.9%YoY while China imported 48.07m tonnes,up 2.8%MoM.As for the product sector,except for the small decline of MR tankers in the Pacific region,the freight rates of all routes that had unexpectedly risen in the early stage began to loosen and fell sharply.